800
FXUS62 KMLB 152300
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
700 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE INTO FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
- A WET AND WINDY WEEKEND IS FORECAST BEHIND A PASSING FRONT,
WITH CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY AND FLOODING CONCERNS RETURN, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS, HIGH SURF, AND MODERATE BEACH
EROSION ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION NEAR
THE BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENT-FRIDAY... A MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5"+)
IDENTIFIED FROM CAPE CANAVERAL AND THE ORLANDO METRO SOUTHWARD. THIS
AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL FAVOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD
TODAY (20-40%) WHILE AREAS NORTH OF ORLANDO REMAIN DRY. THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO TOMORROW AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST TONIGHT, EXPANDING NORTHWARD ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SPREADS INLAND THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW PUSHING BACK ANY ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE
COAST IN THE EVENING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES AND
PEAK INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND LINGER SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS COASTAL HAZARDS. ON
SATURDAY, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY, AND
SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH MORE AREAWIDE (LOCALLY HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST). MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-50% PROBABILITIES) EXISTS
IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH SUNDAY, AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE
LIKELY TO EXPAND TO INCLUDE MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR NOW, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, KEEPING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY INTO MID NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW, HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ROUGH SURF, LARGE BREAKING WAVES,
AND A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT AT
ALL AREA BEACHES. ENTERING THE WATER IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED! LONG
PERIOD ONSHORE SWELLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BEACH EROSION, AND MODERATE
BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY, THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS AREAWIDE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND THE CAPE (50-70%)
WITH EARLIER ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN
VICINITY OF THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH, BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR ROUNDS OF
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
I-95 CORRIDOR INTO NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ANY
STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
PRODUCING FLOODING ISSUES, MOSTLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXISTS ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
A COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS RANGING THE THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY. SOME GRADUAL
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENT-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE WINDS TO CONTINUE BUT WEAKEN, WITH
EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS TOMORROW.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS AS WILL A FEW STORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE CAPE THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS)...HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BEHIND A PASSING
FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE WATERS SATURDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE WATERS ON SUNDAY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
LIKELY. WINDS OF THIS INTENSITY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS UP TO 10-14 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
LIGHT, ISOLATED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH A MENTION OF
VCSH FROM VRB SOUTHWARD. MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE, WITH LIGHT ESE
WINDS AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE THE ECSB CAUSES WINDS TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE ESE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR VCSH AND VCTS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 17Z, EXPANDING TOWARDS THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR
TEMPOS OR PROB30S, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY ASSESSED.
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 87 72 79 / 10 40 20 30
MCO 73 91 74 81 / 0 60 40 40
MLB 76 87 73 83 / 10 60 50 70
VRB 75 88 72 85 / 30 60 50 70
LEE 73 90 73 78 / 0 50 20 30
SFB 73 90 73 80 / 10 50 30 30
ORL 73 90 74 81 / 0 60 40 30
FPR 75 88 72 85 / 30 60 50 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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