784
FXUS62 KMLB 161127
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
727 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- RAIN CHANCES RISE TODAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND A PASSING FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS, HIGH SURF, AND MODERATE BEACH
EROSION ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION NEAR THE BEACH
AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA FARTHER EAST. WINDS WEAKEN
AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST
BECOMING ONSHORE AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.0" ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER RAIN CHANCES TODAY
(AROUND 50-70%), WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. TEMPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ALOFT (AROUND -6C AT 500MB), BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME POCKETS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND
500-800 J/KG THAT MAY STILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO 40-45 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SLOW STORM MOTION TOWARD THE
N-NE AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 2-4 INCHES FROM ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS MAY LEAD
TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING, BUT WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXITS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S INLAND. MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL ALSO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 98-102F. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
SATURDAY-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY, WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH INLAND
AND UP TO 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH.
WHILE A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG THE
COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY, AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER FROM TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH (POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE COAST) WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, AS CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, MAINTAINING BREEZY TO WINDY NE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW, WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS. ROUGH SURF, LARGE BREAKING WAVES, AND A HIGH
RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL AREA
BEACHES. ENTERING THE WATER IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED! LONG PERIOD
ONSHORE SWELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION
THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING FRONT, WITH HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. AS FLOW VEERS ONSHORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER BANDS OR STORMS MAY STILL LEAD TO A RISK OF
FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL PERSISTS FOR THIS REGION TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING PW VALUES BELOW 1.5" BY SUNDAY, BUT THE
STRONG NE BREEZE WILL STILL GENERATE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS SUNDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS PUSHING
ONSHORE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
IT WILL TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
AND THEN SOME GRADUAL WARMING IS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
INTO THE 60S, BUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE STRONGER NE BREEZE
MAY KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONSHORE WINDS
WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY, WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO THE S/SW INTO TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FEET. ONSHORE MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AND BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS PAST SUNRISE. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY, WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
N/NE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS STARTING AT 11 AM SATURDAY AND
EXPANDS TO THE BREVARD WATERS AT 2 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GALE
CONDITIONS THEN MAKE TAKE A LONGER TIME TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TREASURE COAST WATERS (MAYBE NOT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY), SO FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A
STRONG NE BREEZE THEN PERSISTS SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. SEAS ALSO QUICKLY
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TO 10-15 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND THESE HEIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF GUSTY SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE WATERS AND ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM MLB SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FORM MLB SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADDED TEMPOS THROUGH 13Z FROM VRB
SOUTHWARD FOR 4SM SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TODAY, WHILE THE ECSB CAUSES WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE ESE ALONG
THE COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH/VCTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER
17Z, EXPANDING TO THE INTERIOR SITES AFTER 18Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPOS
FOR TSRA AND MVFR CIGS FOR MCO, ISM, AND SFB STARTING AT 20Z, AND
PROB30 FROM TIX SOUTHWARD STARTING AT 18Z. LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 01Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
AND AFTER 04Z ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, REMAINING ESE ALONG THE
COAST. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
ADDED VCTS STARTING AT 09/11Z FOR INTERIOR SITES AND DAB. MAY NEED
TO ADD VCSH/VCTS ALONG OTHER COASTAL SITES LATER TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 71 79 66 / 60 40 40 10
MCO 91 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10
MLB 87 72 83 69 / 70 50 70 40
VRB 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60
LEE 90 72 78 63 / 40 20 30 10
SFB 90 73 80 66 / 70 40 30 10
ORL 90 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10
FPR 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ550-570.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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