383
FXUS62 KMLB 171136
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
736 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORECAST TODAY
AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. DRIER CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PRODUCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL OF 2-4" IS POSSIBLE, AND THERE
IS A 1 IN 10 CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6" IN ONE OR TWO
SPOTS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MULTIPLE BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND THAT ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS, HIGH SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS,
AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE
CAUTION NEAR THE BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UP
TO 20-25 MPH AT THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WIND GUSTS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE
COAST INTO TONIGHT, AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
NEED OF ANY WIND ADVISORIES EAST OF I-95. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
TO 35-40 MPH (POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST),
NECESSITATING THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY WILL OCCUR INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS VEER NE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER BETWEEN STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH, STRONG HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THE INCREASING N/NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF, LARGE BREAKING
WAVES, AND A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED! LONG
PERIOD ONSHORE SWELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BEACH
EROSION THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR AREA BEACHES
TODAY, WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE PASSING FRONT TODAY. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-45 MPH AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 80%) AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER NE AND TAP
INTO LINGERING HIGHER MOISTURE (PW VALUES 2.0-2.3"), PERSISTENT
ONSHORE MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP,
MAINLY ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO QUICK
TOTALS OF 2-4" AND THERE EXISTS A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 6" PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN ONE OR TWO SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW SATURATED SOILS ARE. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN (PW VALUES FALLING BELOW
1.5"), THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
ROUNDS OF GUSTY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONSHORE INTO SUNDAY (HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST).
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S NEAR TO NORTH OF ORLANDO AND LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT MAY REMAIN IN
THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO NEXT WEEK, AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND STRONG LOW LINGERS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY TO
WINDY N/NE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING ROUGH SURF,
LARGE BREAKING WAVES, A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS WEEK. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
GENERALLY FORECAST INLAND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
BECOMING HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
N/NE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY. A GALE WARNING
(WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE FREQUENT)
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS STARTING AT 11 AM
THIS MORNING AND EXPANDS TO THE BREVARD WATERS AT 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING THEN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG NE BREEZE CONTINUES. GALE CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK TO MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS STARTING AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
FOR NOW ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT ADDITIONAL
EXPANSIONS WILL BE NEEDED. SEAS RESPOND BY RAPIDLY BUILDING FROM 2-3
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8-14 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE MORE PERSISTENT BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REPEATED ROUNDS OF GUSTY
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND ONSHORE
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N/NW, STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FRESH TO STRONG N/NE BREEZE BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS PERSISTS. LARGE SEAS
UP TO 10-14 FEET CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND THEN ONLY VERY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FEET INTO WEDNESDAY.
ROUNDS OF GUSTY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE WATERS AND ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BRUSHING ALONG THE
COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH ALONG ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ECFL THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING WITH IT A
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A LIGHTNING STORM OR TWO. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS STARTING AT 12Z FOR
THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH MLB STARTING AT
15Z, AND SUA STARTING AT 17Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NNE AND INCREASE TO 12-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
26 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES (STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST).
PERSISTENT VCSH IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN VCTS, THOUGH IT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TEMPOS/PROB30S AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, STARTING ACROSS
THE NORTH FIRST, WITH THE TREASURE COAST CLEARING AROUND 03Z. NNE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS 20-28 KT
POSSIBLE, HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
MORE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
20-26KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 67 76 68 / 30 10 40 30
MCO 79 67 79 67 / 40 10 20 10
MLB 82 70 81 71 / 60 30 30 30
VRB 85 70 82 70 / 80 60 30 30
LEE 77 63 76 64 / 30 0 10 10
SFB 78 66 78 67 / 30 10 20 10
ORL 79 67 78 68 / 30 10 20 10
FPR 84 70 82 70 / 80 60 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ550-570.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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