220
FXUS62 KMLB 180552
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
152 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PRODUCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL OF 2-4" IS POSSIBLE, AND THERE IS
A 1 IN 10 CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6" IN ONE OR TWO
SPOTS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MULTIPLE HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND, MANY OF WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL CORRIDORS OF VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN BREVARD FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY
EVENING.
- FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS, HIGH SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND
MODERATE BEACH EROSION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION NEAR THE
BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY,
THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. SO FAR RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT
STRATIFORM, BUT SOME DEEPER CONVECTION HAS CROPPED UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (UP TO
AROUND 80%) TODAY ARE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER
NORTHEASTERLY, RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP SHEER WHILE TAPPING
INTO LINGERING HIGHER MOISTURE THAT COULD SUPPORT TRAINING BANDS
OF STORMS/HEAVY SHOWERS. IN FACT, NEARLY STATIONARY TRAINING BANDS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST, WHICH
MAY LIFT NORTH. THESE BANDS COULD PRODUCE QUICK RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2-4", AND THERE EXISTS A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
6", PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN ONE OR TWO SPOTS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
HOW SATURATED SOILS ARE. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE HIGHEST
QPF BULLS-EYES A BIT MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM COASTAL MARTIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF COASTAL ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. OTHER STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE FRONT, DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN US, AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15-20
MPH INLAND AND 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESONET
WERE ALREADY REPORTING GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NBM AND HREF CHANCES FOR
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 35 MPH ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD
COASTS ARE STILL 60-80%, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED IN
THESE AREAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY EVENING. A
LITTLE LULL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING, BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR
SEGMENTING THE ADVISORY. GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO
35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF ECFL, AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INLAND/SOUTH.
THIS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A NUMBER OF
BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS, INCLUDING ROUGH SURF, LARGE BREAKING
WAVES, AND A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED! LONG
PERIOD ONSHORE SWELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR AREA
BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING
INTO EFFECT LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD.
MONDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S., THE
STRONG LOW MEANDERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST U.S. COAST, AND
THE STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
BREEZY TO WINDY N/NE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING ROUGH
SURF, LARGE BREAKING WAVES, A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION AT AREA BEACHES, AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS GENERALLY FORECAST INLAND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY, DEEP HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN US,
AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, CAUSING N-NE WINDS TO SURGE TO 20-30 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE VOLUSIA AND SPACE COAST ATLANTIC WATERS FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE IN THE
NORTHERN VOLUSIA WATERS, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILD FROM 3-7 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5-11 FT
THIS EVENING, HIGHEST NORTH AND OFFSHORE, UP TO 9-14 FT SUNDAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, HIGHEST IN THE GULF STREAM.
LIGHTNING STORMS SO FAR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAVE STAYED
WELL OFFSHORE, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO SHORE IN THE SOUTHERN SPACE AND TREASURE
COAST WATERS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATERS LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS OVER
34 KTS, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N/NW, THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA,
AND STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO STRONG N/NE BREEZE 20-30
KNOTS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. LARGE SEAS UP TO 10-14 FEET
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, AND THEN ONLY VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7-9
FEET INTO WEDNESDAY.
ROUNDS OF GUSTY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE WATERS AND ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS OFF THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST TONIGHT. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT SUA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 12-20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCSH WORDING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY, WITH WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT POSSIBLE (HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 69 77 64 / 30 30 10 0
MCO 79 69 80 62 / 20 20 10 0
MLB 81 72 81 69 / 30 30 30 10
VRB 82 71 83 68 / 30 30 30 10
LEE 76 65 78 59 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 77 68 79 61 / 20 30 10 0
ORL 78 69 79 62 / 20 20 10 0
FPR 82 71 83 68 / 20 30 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ141-154-347-447-
647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-164-
347-447-647-747.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-570.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WATSON
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