037
FXUS62 KMLB 181725
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
125 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ALONG THE COASTS OF VOLUSIA, BREVARD AND
INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS, HIGH SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND
MODERATE BEACH EROSION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION NEAR THE
BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
- GUSTY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY, AND THEN TURNING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
TODAY-MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND LINGERS
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AS STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOW OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH INTO LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AT THE COAST WILL REMAIN AROUND 15-25 MPH. GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT ALONG THE COAST
OF VOLUSIA, BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES GUSTS AROUND 35-40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH FROM
GRADIENT WINDS OR GUSTY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TODAY, BUT DOES NOT LOOK FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A WIND
ADVISORY. INTO MONDAY, WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY (POTENTIALLY
WINDY ALONG THE COAST), WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH, WITH
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
THIS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A NUMBER OF BEACH
AND MARINE HAZARDS, INCLUDING ROUGH SURF, LARGE BREAKING WAVES, AND
A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED! LONG PERIOD
ONSHORE SWELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION
THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
EXISTS FOR AREA BEACHES AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK AS SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD.
DRIER, COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER, STRONGER NE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE
WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS OUT THERE TO GENERATE ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. HOWEVER, NO STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR TO NORTH OF ORLANDO AND IN THE
LOW 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TONIGHT, EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN MIN TEMPS IN THE
70S. THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT, MAY SEE LOW DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
50S NORTHWEST OF I-4.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
BETWEEN STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH AND STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HOWEVER, MODELS DO INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RELAX
SOME, BUT STILL PRODUCE AT LEAST BREEZY N/NE WINDS UP TO 15-20 MPH
EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE AT TIMES. STRONG
LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL FINALLY GET PUSHED NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF ANOTHER ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO LATE WEEK. THE
STRONG RIDGE REMAINS CEMENTED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, AS
WEAK LOW/DISTURBANCE MAY TAKE FORM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ONSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ONCE
AGAIN, PRODUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S, EXCEPT UPPER 50S NW OF I-4.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND DEVELOPING STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NE BREEZE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
FALLS BACK TO JUST THE VOLUSIA WATERS FOR MONDAY AS GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN A LITTLE. STILL, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR AREAS WITHOUT A GALE WARNING, AS N/NE WINDS REMAIN UP
TO 15-25 KNOTS CONTINUING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TODAY INTO MONDAY,
PEAKING UP TO 10-14 FEET AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE
(BUT STILL REMAINING HAZARDOUS) THROUGH MIDWEEK, DECREASING TO 7-9
FEET WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ROUNDS OF GUSTY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND
ONSHORE TODAY AND TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
12-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE OUTSIDE OF
A LOW CHANCE FOR VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 69 77 64 77 / 30 10 0 0
MCO 69 80 62 81 / 30 10 0 0
MLB 72 81 68 81 / 30 30 10 0
VRB 72 83 68 82 / 30 30 10 0
LEE 65 78 59 79 / 20 0 0 0
SFB 68 79 61 79 / 30 10 0 0
ORL 69 79 62 80 / 30 10 0 0
FPR 71 82 67 82 / 20 30 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-164-
347-447-647-747.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ141-154-347-447-
647-747.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-570.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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