877
FXUS62 KMLB 181900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTS OF
VOLUSIA, BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM EDT.
- FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS, HIGH SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND
MODERATE BEACH EROSION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION NEAR THE
BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH WELL INLAND THROUGH MONDAY, THEN TURNING
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THRU TONIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE WITH
SUNSET OVER INLAND AREAS BUT REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY ALONG THE COAST
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA/BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES THRU 8 PM AND IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED. DESPITE DRIER AIR, PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS
PICKING UP SOME ATLC MOISTURE WHICH WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC. THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL
CROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND PUSH WELL INLAND SO A 20-30% POP
IS DRAWN AREAWIDE. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF BUT THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE/FEW ROUNDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY
MILD ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, COOLING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR.
MON...NE WINDS PERSIST; REMAINING WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SPEEDS 15-25 MPH GUSTING 30-35 MPH SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
WIND ADVISORY. BREEZY/GUSTY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS PERSISTENT FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A NUMBER OF BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS...INCLUDING ROUGH SURF,
LARGE BREAKING WAVES, AND A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED! LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE BEACH EROSION FOLLOWING MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR AREA BEACHES AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD.
ONSHORE, FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30% COVERAGE.
NO LIGHTNING IS FORECAST AS INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW. MAX
TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...UPPER 70S LAKE/VOLUSIA AND
LOW 80S METRO ORLANDO/BREVARD AND MID 80S OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST.
TUE-SAT...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST INTO MIDWEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC WILL FINALLY LIFT NE AWAY FROM
THE US EAST COAST BY LATE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME RESULTING IN DECREASED LOW LEVEL WINDS. BUT
BREEZY CONDS OF 15-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST EACH
DAY. MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE AT TIMES.
THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS CEMENTED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, AS WEAK LOW/DISTURBANCE MAY TAKE FORM NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
ONSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN, PRODUCING BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S, EXCEPT UPPER 50S NW OF I-4.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NE BREEZE THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BUT IS
STRUGGLING TO VERIFY OVER THE BREVARD WATERS. HAVE MOVED UP
EXPIRATION OF THE GALE WARNING TO 8PM FOR THE BREVARD ATLC WATERS
AND WILL REPLACE IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADV (SCA). THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE VOLUSIA WATERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT MAY ALSO
BE EXPIRED EARLIER THAN FORECAST DURING MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF
STREAM WHERE N/NE WINDS DIRECTLY OPPOSE THE CURRENT. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 14 FEET THERE AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, REACHING 7-9 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THRU WED MORNING FOR NOW.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE COAST THRU MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THEN LOOK TO PERSIST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
12-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE OUTSIDE OF
A LOW CHANCE FOR VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 69 77 64 77 / 30 10 0 0
MCO 69 80 62 81 / 30 10 0 0
MLB 72 81 68 81 / 30 30 10 0
VRB 72 83 68 82 / 30 30 10 0
LEE 65 78 59 79 / 20 0 0 0
SFB 68 79 61 79 / 30 10 0 0
ORL 69 79 62 80 / 30 10 0 0
FPR 71 82 67 82 / 20 30 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-164-
347-447-647-747.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ141-154-347-447-
647-747.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-570.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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