342
FXUS62 KMLB 191804
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
204 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TODAY. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION AT THE
BEACH AND AVOID ENTERING THE WATER.
- SCATTERED, FAST-MOVING SHOWERS WILL REACH THE COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND AT TIMES. DRIER CONDITIONS RESUME
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS FORECAST AS NORTHEAST WINDS
CARRY FAST-MOVING SHOWERS ONSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME. LAST EVENING'S
00Z XMR SOUNDING REVEALED SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 750-
800 MB, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY (RAIN
CHANCES 20-35%). DESPITE A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY,
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH (20-25 MPH AT THE
COAST) AND PEAK GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. BASED ON REFS/HREF PROBABILITIES
LESS THAN 10-20% FOR FREQUENT 35+ MPH GUSTS, WE LOOK TO FALL JUST
SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
ROUGH, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6-10 FEET AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS WILL MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS SURF ZONE. STAY OUT OF THE WATER
TODAY! A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
AT ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MINOR/MODERATE BEACH EROSION FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE
80S ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER
FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF US IS
GOING TO SUPPORT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS
(ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST). PEAK GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOWLY PULLS
NORTHWARD, ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TUESDAY. THE SURFACE-TO-700MB LAYER MOISTENS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY, SO SOME ISOLATED MARINE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW, MENTION OF RAIN MAKING IT TO THE COAST
IS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM SEBASTIAN SOUTHWARD. ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, AS MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SHALLOW-LAYER PRECIP
PATTERNS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY, AND THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS
FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ENTERING THE WATER IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATE WEEK, EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES. EVENTUALLY, THIS UPPER HIGH GETS SQUEEZED AND WEAKENED
BY A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TWO SURFACE FEATURES TO WATCH FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE 1) AN EXPANDING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND 2)
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A REMNANT FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. AS CURRENTLY PRESENTED, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND MAKES FOR A WINDY/GUSTY WEEKEND
AHEAD. ROUGH SURF, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION WOULD ALSO RESULT. RAIN CHANCES GROW FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 (UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S), WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY ONWARD. OVERALL, VALUES LOOK TO RUN
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TODAY, MAINTAINING 8-12 FT
SEAS NEARSHORE AND 10-14 FT SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD. A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR
THE VOLUSIA WATERS UNTIL 8 AM EDT (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
REMAINING MARINE LEGS), REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THAT
POINT FORWARD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
MODESTLY WEAKEN. STILL, FRESH ONSHORE BREEZES ARE FORECAST WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY RESTRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE BY THIS
WEEKEND. IN SHORT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SEAS GENERALLY 7-11 FT TUESDAY AND
6-9 FT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURN, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE, FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ALONG A REMNANT FRONT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HELP BOOST RAIN CHANCES (40-60%), ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING
STORMS WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT OFF AND ON SHOWERS
ACROSS ECFL TODAY. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS EXISTS AT KISM,
KDAB, AND KTIX BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY NNE WINDS AT
13KT-18KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KTS-26KTS BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTER 15Z FROM THE NORTH- NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 77 65 79 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 64 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 70 81 68 82 / 20 10 10 20
VRB 69 83 68 83 / 20 10 10 20
LEE 60 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 63 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 64 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 69 82 67 82 / 20 10 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...FEHLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page