766
FXUS62 KMLB 191910
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH, POUNDING SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TODAY. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION AT THE
BEACH AND AVOID ENTERING THE WATER.
- SCATTERED, FAST-MOVING SHOWERS WILL REACH THE COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND AT TIMES. DRIER CONDITIONS FORECAST
TUESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
THROUGH WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST LIFTS NE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
NE WINDS TO EASE A BIT BUT REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY ESP ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUE WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT PUSH ONSHORE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A
FEW. BUT LOW LEVELS MOISTEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, SO EXPECT TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS BEGINNING WED AFTN AND
INTO THU ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD TICK UP A DEGREE
OR TWO WITH A LITTLE MORE HEATING/LESS CLOUDS TUE. LOW TEMPS TUE
AND WED MORNINGS COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF I4. WE'LL SEE
IF ORLANDO (MCO) CAN DIP BELOW 60F ONE OF THESE MORNINGS FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY, AND THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS
FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ENTERING THE WATER IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
THU-SUN...MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR TO
THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FRI-SAT ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASES THE NE WINDS,
SETTING UP FOR A WINDY WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW PRESSURE DIFFERENCE OF 10 MB BETWEEN JAX-MIA WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS SOLIDLY IN WIND ADV CRITERIA. ALSO,
ADDITIONAL ROUGH, POUNDING SURF WILL PRODUCE MORE BEACH EROSION.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES DEPICTED SAT-SUN BUT
AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE SCATTERED ATLC SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE,
LIKELY VERY FAST-MOVING.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE, HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S, WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FRIDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
CURRENTLY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VOLUSIA
WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW THE REST OF THIS WEEK, EASING SOMEWHAT TUE-THU. BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ESP IN THE GULF STREAM. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WED NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED AT LEAST FOR THE GULF STREAM THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FRI-SAT
IS FORECAST TO RE-TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE THE
NE WINDS AGAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE
FORCE THIS WEEKEND AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS. HAVE
CAPPED SEAS AT 14 FT OFFSHORE FOR NOW.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE COAST THRU TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THEN A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE LATE WED-THU. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING ALONG A REMNANT FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL HELP BOOST RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING
STORMS WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT OFF AND ON SHOWERS
ACROSS ECFL TODAY. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS EXISTS AT KISM,
KDAB, AND KTIX BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY NNE WINDS AT
13KT-18KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KTS-26KTS BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTER 15Z FROM THE NORTH- NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 77 65 79 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 64 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 70 81 68 82 / 20 10 10 20
VRB 69 83 68 83 / 20 10 10 20
LEE 60 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 63 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 64 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 69 82 67 82 / 20 10 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...FEHLING
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