623
FXUS64 KMOB 151125
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE AND
TURN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. 07/MB
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 421 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024/
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
COOL, DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
NOTHING TO DISCUSS ON RADAR OR SATELLITE AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING TODAY'S
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING. PWATS REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND AS WE ROLL INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA MIGHT EVEN FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AREA-
WIDE WITH LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT NIGHT.
BEACH NOTE: THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS LOW THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. 07/MB
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, SHIFTING AN UPPER
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST EASTWARD, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, RANGING
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO LATER WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
LEANING TOWARDS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD EARLY WEDNESDAY PASSAGE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AT THE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, RAINSHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. COOLER GULF WATERS NEAR THE
COAST WILL HELP TO TEMPER INSTABILITY, REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MUCAPES TOP OUT IN THE 700-1000J/KG RANGE, WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOPPING
OUT IN THE 2.1"-2.4" RANGE) INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MEAGER DCAPES (WELL UNDER 200J/KG IN MOST
CASES) SO THE RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IS SMALL. EBWD SHEAR IS
DECENT, AROUND 25-30KTS, WITH A LINEAR PROFILE IN THE HODOGRAPHS,
WITH LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE ON THE RADAR. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS WEAK,
SO THE CHANCE OF ANY ROTATORS IS EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WIND ISSUES.
FOR THIS FRONT, THE PRIMARY THREAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE LOCALIZED
WATER ISSUES. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE HEAVY RAINERS. ANY TRAINING CELLS CAN
POTENTIALLY CAUSE LOCAL WATER ISSUES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS
EVENT IS TIMING. FOR THE FASTER ECMWF, TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
THE TIME FRAME. ON THE SLOWER END, THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS BEING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY IF TIMING AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ALONG THE COAST, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. COASTAL
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A POSSIBILITY OF INUNDATION IN
FAVORED AREAS INN MOBILE BAY AND ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COMING FRONT.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S NORTHEAST OF A WAYNESBORO TO CRESTVIEW LINE, UPPER 50S TO
LOW AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, WITH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT, MID TO UPPER 30S
WELL NORTH OF I-10 ARE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 TO LOW 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
/16
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH ADVISORY HEADLINES
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY. ADVISORY CONTINUES RETURN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 47 74 54 78 62 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 60
PENSACOLA 71 55 72 59 76 66 78 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
DESTIN 72 57 73 60 77 64 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
EVERGREEN 70 41 73 46 77 52 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
WAYNESBORO 70 42 74 47 77 55 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 60
CAMDEN 67 40 72 44 74 50 74 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
CRESTVIEW 71 42 74 47 80 53 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
670-675.
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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
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