241
FXUS64 KMOB 161750
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME, ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. SOME
INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO
MVFR. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN. A LIGHT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /96
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A DRY FORECAST PERSISTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WHILE
GETTING SLIGHTLY NUDGED TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
SLIDES EASTWARD, WINDS ALOFT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. LOOKING DOWN TOWARD
THE LOWER LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING EVENTUALLY SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH PWATS BELOW 0.5
INCHES, MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW SETS-UP OVERHEAD. PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 1
INCH WEST OF I-65 BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND IN THIS PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT STAYING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT WE'RE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING AT THIS HOUR...WITH A SIMILAR
INCREASING TREND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEACH NOTE: THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL SLOWLY GET WORSE AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS MODERATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A HIGH RISK EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BREAKERS OF 2-3 FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
STEADILY INCREASING BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 07/MB
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST CLOCKWISE, AND DIRECTING THE REMNANTS OF SARA OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL
BRING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORGANIZES ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH YESTERDAY'S SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. HAVE BIT BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AS A RESULT.
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE INITIAL
UPGLIDE WILL BRING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO LAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH AN INCREASING LINEAR WIND PROFILE
AND EBWD SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 40 KTS COMBINED WITH MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES RISING TO AROUND 500 J/KG), EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DCAPES (INTO THE
700-1000J/KG RANGE), WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS. OVER MARINE AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MORE SURFACE
BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY, ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COASTAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S MONDAY COOL OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AS INCREASING
RAIN AND CLOUDS LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. IF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OCCURS AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES OFF, THESE MAY BE UNDERDONE.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED,
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40 INLAND FROM THE COAST, MID 40S ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE A CFW FOR A HIGH RIP RISK
ALONG WITH COASTAL PILING ISSUED IN LATER PERIODS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 56 77 62 81 69 75 60 70 / 0 0 0 10 60 90 30 10
PENSACOLA 60 75 65 79 72 76 64 73 / 0 0 0 0 40 90 50 10
DESTIN 61 77 64 80 71 79 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 20 80 70 10
EVERGREEN 45 76 50 79 65 75 59 71 / 0 0 0 0 40 90 40 10
WAYNESBORO 48 77 55 82 65 75 56 68 / 0 0 0 0 70 80 30 10
CAMDEN 45 75 51 77 63 72 56 68 / 0 0 0 0 50 90 40 10
CRESTVIEW 46 77 51 82 66 79 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 30 90 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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