604
FXUS64 KMOB 162327
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
527 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
AN MVFR CEILING IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024/
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A DRY AIRMASS (PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 0.4 TO 0.7 INCHES)
REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD THANKS TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, AND A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
HAVE TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, SETTING UP THE STAGE FOR
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE PERIOD. RAIN, HOWEVER, IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 1KM AND SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVERHEAD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE ONSET OF WAA, FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS,
WEAK WINDS, AND SUBSIDENCE, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FOG COVERAGE, HOWEVER, IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
REMAINS LOW THROUGH SUNDAY, INCREASING TO MODERATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY HIGH BY MONDAY. /96
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN
LIFTS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CONUS WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND DOWN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MIDWEEK, AND DIRECTS THE REMNANTS OF SARA UP TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE REMNANTS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION BY LATE TUESDAY.
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF SARA JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE EAST
ADVANCING FRONT AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE, IT WILL
LIKELY BRING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WPC
HAS ALREADY INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (WITH
POTENTIAL SOME FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA. WITH THIS
BEING MOSTLY AN OVERRUNNING EVENT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE
LIMITED THE WAY IT LOOKS FOR NOW, BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL
POTENTIAL NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVER MARINE AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MORE SURFACE
BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY, ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COASTAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY.
COASTAL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING (ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF NORMAL HIGH
TIDE FROM ABOUT 10 PM MONDAY THROUGH AROUND 5 AM TUESDAY) WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TO OCCUR
AROUND THE SAME TIME AS THE EXPECTED NORMAL HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION,
HIGH SURF AND SOME BEACH EROSION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES, AS WELL AS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS DURING THE
SAME GENERAL LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SPECIAL PRODUCTS FOR THESE
HAZARDS, BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEGINNING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER. DAYTIME HIGHS START OFF IN
THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, COOL TO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN
ONLY IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE 60S ON SATURDAY). NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 30S (WELL INLAND) AND THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN A TOUCH COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH MOST OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S AT THE COAST. DS/12
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY DUE TO AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW,
ALONG WITH 6 TO 9 FOOT SEAS, IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ON TUESDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES, HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, WIND SPEEDS
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS (POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE)
OVER THE COMING DAYS. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 55 77 62 79 69 77 59 71 / 0 0 0 10 60 90 30 10
PENSACOLA 59 76 66 78 72 76 64 73 / 0 0 0 0 40 90 50 10
DESTIN 60 76 66 78 71 78 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 20 90 60 10
EVERGREEN 47 77 53 78 65 75 58 71 / 0 0 0 0 40 90 40 10
WAYNESBORO 49 77 57 80 65 77 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 70 80 30 0
CAMDEN 46 76 54 75 63 72 56 68 / 0 0 0 0 50 90 30 10
CRESTVIEW 46 78 53 80 66 78 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 30 90 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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