460
FXUS64 KMOB 180034
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IMPROVED
MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD
BECOME ENHANCED BY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS. UNTIL THEN, VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /JLH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024/
.NEAR AND SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
404 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE NEAR INTO SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES A DRAMATIC SHIFT FROM
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER MONDAY TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE
ONE OF THE WETTEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS COMING UP
TUESDAY. MULTIPLE HAZARDS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE PERIOD INCLUDING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. ALL OF
THIS WILL BE DETAILED BELOW. IN THE MEANTIME WE ROUND OUT THE DAY
TODAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70'S THIS AFTERNOON, DIPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50'S INLAND AND MIDDLE 60'S NEARER THE COAST
TONIGHT. MONDAY CONTINUES THE DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARING RECORD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70'S, WITH SOME LOWER
80'S OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM, NEAR OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60'S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ALONG
THE COAST.
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE STORY FOR THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A WIDESPREAD HEAVY,
SOAKING RAIN BECOMING PREVAILING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALL THANKS TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND WHAT FEW CAMS ARE COMING INTO RANGE OF
THE EVENT DEPICT A WIDE SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING
THE PERIOD, WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TRYING TO PAINT A
CORRIDOR OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
(FFG) ACROSS THE REGION IS UNSURPRISINGLY HIGH GIVEN A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA SITS IN A D2 (SEVERE) OR D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT. CURRENT 1HR
FFG SITS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND 2 TO 3
INCHES FURTHER INLAND. 3HR FFG SITS AT 4 TO 5 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, AND THE 6HR FFG IS A SOLID 5+ INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
IN SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE
OCCURRENCE OF THOSE HIGHER TOTALS WE WOULD LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE ONE
FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL/FL AND OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS, I WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES DUE
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OUR URBAN AREAS, PARTICULARLY IF ANY
HEAVIER BANDING CAN SET UP IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL COASTAL HAZARDS IN EFFECT INCLUDING A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND ANOTHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY MORNING, LASTING THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY
NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL, STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE ABOVE
HAZARDS. FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY, SURF HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 5 TO 7
FEET ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NORMAL TROUBLE SPOTS
FOR TONIGHT. LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE US 90/98 CAUSEWAY AT THE I-10
INTERCHANGE BEGIN TO OBSERVE SPLASHOVER AND STANDING WATER RESULTING
IN MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE EASTBOUND I-10 ON-RAMPS. THE US 90/98
CAUSEWAY USUALLY REMAINS OPEN, BUT BRIEF CLOSURES OF THE EASTBOUND,
OUTSIDE LANE DUE TO STANDING WATER AND DEBRIS ON THE ROAD IS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS, PIERS, BOAT RAMPS AND
OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOBILE BAY. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THE PROBLEMS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN ALL COASTAL ZONES OF ALABAMA INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MM/25
.LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE WEATHER SYSTEM NOTED ABOVE WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION AND REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN FINALLY DRIFTING OFF JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. ALOFT A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WITH THIS, A MUCH COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN, BUT STILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT LOW/MID 70S DOWN NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S, AND THEN
EVEN A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S OVER SOME INLAND LOCATIONS (HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR) AND 60S
ELSEWHERE. A VERY SLIGHT REBOUND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS AND THE COLDEST NIGHT BEING FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. A SLIGHT REBOUND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WHICH WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND BUT LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE
(EXCEPT PERHAPS LOW 50S AT THE COAST). DS/12
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MARINE
WATERS. MONDAY EVENING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OPEN GULF WATERS FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS EXCEEDING 7 FEET.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARDS, A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 81 70 75 60 71 43 64 / 0 10 70 100 30 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 67 78 72 75 65 73 47 64 / 0 10 60 90 50 0 0 0
DESTIN 67 79 72 78 67 76 49 66 / 0 10 30 90 70 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 52 78 65 73 59 71 39 62 / 0 0 60 100 50 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 57 81 66 75 55 68 40 63 / 0 10 90 90 30 0 0 0
CAMDEN 53 76 64 70 58 68 39 60 / 0 0 70 100 50 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 55 80 66 75 61 76 39 66 / 0 0 30 90 70 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ263-264.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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