683
FXUS64 KMOB 181012
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
WHILE WE TECHNICALLY START THE WEEK DRY (ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS MORNING), WE QUICKLY ROLL INTO A VERY WET PATTERN THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. VERY WET IS PROBABLY AN UNDERSTATEMENT AS
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE WETTEST DAYS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. AS IS TRADITIONAL IN THE FALL/WINTER MONTHS
AROUND HERE, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE HAZARDS THAT ACCOMPANY THE
INCOMING SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT INCLUDING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING,
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. LET'S BREAK DOWN THOSE HAZARDS...
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WE ROLL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND A SURFACE LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. PWATS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCHES AREA-WIDE
AT THIS HOUR (09Z), BUT WILL QUICKLY SURGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH JUICY 2.0+ INCH PWATS ENTERING SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
COASTAL ALABAMA A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUMP INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT PWATS OF 2.0-2.5 INCHES WILL SLIDE INTO THE ENTIRE
LOCAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE WE DO EXPECT SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 3AM TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT CAME IN
OVERNIGHT IS TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE
GULF, BUT WE STILL EXPECT A FIRE HOSE OF WATER TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN PREVAILING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA COUNTIES. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF
OUR AREA SITS IN A D2 (SEVERE) OR D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT. UNLESS THIS
RAIN FALLS ALL AT ONCE (WHICH DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY BASED ON ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE), THE GROUND SHOULD (SHOULD IS THE KEY WORD HERE)
NOT GET OVERWHELMED BY THE INCOMING WATER.EVEN OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD,
THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A SOLID 5+ INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WHICH GIVES US CONFIDENCE THAT WE SHOULD NOT SEE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS, WE CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS
OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING. REGARDLESS, WE DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME MINOR, NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY HEAVIER BANDING CAN
SET UP IN THOSE LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING (POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI).
AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURES, WINDS MAY GET A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS. EXPECT 20-25MPH
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY) STARTING
THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20+ KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 7+ FEET
OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS BRIEFLY RELAX OVER LAND AND WATER IN THE
WAKE OF THE POTENT COLD FRONT AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS QUICKLY REBOUND WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AS WE ROLL INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES/COASTLINE WILL GO DOWNHILL AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURF INCREASES AND THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
INCREASES TO A HIGH. THE SURF WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 5-7 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE SURF WILL SLOWLY FALL OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY WITH 4-5 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS, WE ALSO EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS
THIS MORNING REACHED 1.86FT MHHW IN NORTHERN MOBILE BAY WITH SOME
WATER NOTICED ON THE I-10E ON-RAMP FROM THE CAUSEWAY ON THE TRAFFIC
CAMERAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW. P-ETSS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ALL COASTAL GAUGES WILL
HIT OR EXCEED 2.0 FT MHHW WITH THE UPPER END OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE SITES IN NORTHERN MOBILE BAY MAY TOP
OUT ABOVE 2.5 FT MHHW. GIVEN THAT THE GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST 2 NIGHTS
SOMEWHAT UNDER-PERFORMED IN COMPARISON TO THE OBSERVATIONS, WE
EXPECT THAT MANY OF OUR COASTAL SITES WILL BE SOLIDLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
(CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES) MHHW. WATER LEVELS OF 2.0-2.5 FT MHHW WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS, PIERS, BOAT RAMPS, AND
OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG MOBILE BAY (AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE). THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISSUES ALONG THE CAUSEWAY OVER
MOBILE BAY WITH FLOODWATERS LEADING TO IMPASSABLE CONDITIONS. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ISSUES IN THE TYPICAL LOW-LYING AREAS IN BAYOU
LA BATRE AND ON FT PICKENS...WITH WAVE RUN-UP LIKELY CAUSING ISSUES
ON THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND GULF ISLANDS NATIONAL SEASHORE
AS WELL. 07/MB
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. A NORTHWEST FLOW LOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP
LAYER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUING TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
NO IMPACT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PERSISTS FOR OPEN GULF WATERS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 7+
FEET. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THAT TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 70 76 59 71 42 63 42 / 10 80 100 30 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 78 72 75 65 72 47 62 47 / 0 60 100 50 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 79 72 78 67 77 48 66 48 / 10 40 90 70 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 78 63 73 59 71 39 62 37 / 0 70 100 40 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 80 66 76 54 67 39 63 39 / 0 90 90 20 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 77 63 71 57 67 39 59 38 / 0 70 100 40 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 79 65 78 60 76 40 65 38 / 0 50 90 60 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ALZ263-264.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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