195
FXUS64 KMOB 190517
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1117 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR BEFORE SUNRISE AS
RAIN SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS AT THE TAF SITES. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 12-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
OF THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VISIBILITES TO 2 MILES OR
LESS AT TIMES. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOLID IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER TO LIFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. /JLH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1006 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024/
UPDATED NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIMING APPEARS
TO HAVE SLOWED JUST A BIT AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO, ADJUSTED WINDS UP
AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING TRENDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. THEREFORE THE WAVES OVER THE
MARINE AREAS ARE BEING UPDATED AND THE NEW COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO REFLECT THE LATEST
DATA AVAILABLE. SEAS WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT THE INCREASE IN WINDS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF MAINLY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WITH 3-5 INCHES STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA, WITH GREATEST TOTALS LIKELY CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
STILL ONLY ANTICIPATING MINOR FLOOD IMPACTS DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE PRIOR TO THIS RAIN EVENT. ANY LOCALIZED
FLOODING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PRIMARILY LOW LYING LOCATIONS AND
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS, INCLUDING URBAN LOCATIONS WHERE STORM
DRAINS ARE EITHER CLOGGED BY FALL LEAVES AND DEBRIS OR WHERE
RUNOFF OVERWHELMS THE DRAIN SYSTEMS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. /JLH
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON NEAR TERM FORECAST
AS IS TRADITIONAL IN THE FALL/WINTER MONTHS IN OUR AREA, THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT INCLUDING MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, AND HIGH SURF. THERE
IS A VERY MINIMAL RISK OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOO, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT VERY DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THAT
POTENTIAL. IF THERE IS A SEVERE HAZARD IT WOULD LIKELY NOT EXTEND
VERY FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST.
LETS BREAK DOWN THOSE HAZARDS...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
BEGINNING TO STREAM QUICKLY NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. PWATS ARE QUICKLY
SURGING OVER 1.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND MODEL GUIDANCE (HREF
ENSEMBLE, GFS AND ECMWF) ALL INDICATE THAT PWATS OF 2.0-2.5 INCHES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE WE DO EXPECT
SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER (MAINLY
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES), THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA 3AM TUESDAY MORNING AND WORK ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, LINGERING OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TILL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
FOR NOW OUR QPF HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE
(ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOWER INLAND). LOCALLY HIGHER
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA COUNTIES, AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COUNTIES AS WELL. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE REGION REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA SITS
IN A D2 (SEVERE) OR D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT. UNLESS THIS RAIN FALLS
ALL AT ONCE (WHICH DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY BASED ON ALL THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE), THE GROUND SHOULD (SHOULD IS THE KEY WORD HERE) NOT GET
OVERWHELMED BY THE INCOMING WATER. EVEN OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD, THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A SOLID 5+ INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WHICH GIVES US A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT WE SHOULD NOT SEE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS, WE CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW AS OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
REGARDLESS, WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME MINOR, NUISANCE FLOODING DUE
TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OUR URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
HEAVIER BANDING CAN SET UP IN THOSE LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ALREADY
BE EAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST) AND WE EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY, AS AS A RESULT WILL RESULT IN A SLEW OF COASTAL HAZARDS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURF ALONG
THE BEACHES INCREASES AND THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INCREASES TO A
HIGH. THE SURF WILL BUILD, WITH 5-7 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE SURF
WILL SLOWLY FALL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH 4-5 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
REMAINS HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF
AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS, WE ALSO EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, WITH
THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MAINLY FROM MID EVENING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. P-ETSS GUIDANCE FOR ALL
OF OUR COASTAL GAUGES CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS WILL
HIT OR EXCEED 2.0 FT MHHW WITH THE UPPER END OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE SITES IN NORTHERN MOBILE BAY MAY TOP
OUT AROUND 2.5 FT MHHW. IT HAS BEEN NOTED THAT THE PETSS GUIDANCE
HAS SOMEWHAT UNDER- PERFORMED IN COMPARISON TO THE OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, SO WE EXPECT THAT MANY OF OUR
COASTAL SITES WILL BE SOLIDLY ABOVE 2 INCHES (CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES)
MHHW TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS OF 2.0-2.5 FT MHHW WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS, PIERS, BOAT RAMPS, AND OTHER
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG MOBILE BAY (AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE). THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISSUES ALONG THE CAUSEWAY OVER
MOBILE BAY WITH SALT WATER FLOODING LEADING TO IMPASSABLE
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ISSUES IN THE TYPICAL LOW-
LYING AREAS IN BAYOU LA BATRE AND ON FT PICKENS...WITH WAVE RUN-UP
LIKELY CAUSING ISSUES ON THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND GULF
ISLANDS NATIONAL SEASHORE AS WELL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MORE LIMITED TO JUST
THE NORTHERN MOBILE BAY AREA. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED, AND OF COURSE THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WELL.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. ON TUESDAY, WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN, IT
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S (BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY ONLY MANAGE TO MAKE IT TO THE LOWER
70S). QUITE A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS, UPPER 60S AT THE
COAST. DS/12
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, BECOMING MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING AROUND 70
DEGREES INLAND, AND MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND, WITH LOW/MID
40S NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 76 60 73 43 64 42 62 / 100 100 10 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 76 65 73 46 63 46 61 / 90 100 30 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 72 79 67 77 49 66 47 63 / 70 100 50 10 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 66 74 58 73 39 64 37 59 / 100 100 20 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 67 77 55 69 40 64 38 60 / 100 100 10 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 64 72 55 68 39 60 37 56 / 100 100 20 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 67 78 60 77 40 66 38 63 / 80 90 40 10 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655-670-675.
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