833
FXUS64 KMOB 192142
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS EXITED OUR LOCAL
REGION TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
LINGERING, LIGHT SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT OTHERWISE, TODAY'S RAIN EVENT IS NOW OVER.
SEVERAL COASTAL HAZARDS STILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND THIS WILL BE
DETAILED IN THE 'COASTAL HAZARDS' SECTION BELOW.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EVOLVE INTO
A MASSIVE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST, IT
WILL HELP TO SEND A SECOND, MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO THE MID 60S
OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. SIMILARLY, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
COASTAL HAZARDS...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE ALONG OUR ENTIRE
COASTLINE. P-ETSS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY MAY REACH AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9 FEET
MHHW, WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SPLASHOVER/STANDING WATER
ALONG THE US 90/98 CAUSEWAY. MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS, PIERS, BOAT
RAMPS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, WATER LEVELS MAY GET
CLOSE TO 2.0 FEET MHHW. REACHING THIS CRITERIA IS A BIT LESS
CERTAIN THAN REACHING CRITERIA IN MOBILE BAY, BUT AS THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED, OBSERVED WATER LEVELS HAVE OVERPERFORMED IN
COMPARISON TO THE P-ETSS GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET. SURF
HEIGHTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
SIMILARLY, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING TO MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND LOW BY THURSDAY. /96
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AND OUR
AREA COULD SEE LOWS REACH FREEZING VALUES WELL INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES SLOWLY ADVANCES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST REGION ON SATURDAY AND
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS A COOL AND DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
40S AT THE COAST, THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BY WHICH
TIME LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S
AT THE COAST. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT OUR AREA COULD NEED THE FIRST
FREEZE PRODUCT ISSUANCE OF THE SEASON WELL INLAND FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, THEN
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA, THIS
DOESN'T LOOK SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF POPS. A
WARMING TREND ENSUES, AND BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW RISK FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GUSTS OFFSHORE MAY OCCASIONALLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER BRIEFLY SUBSIDING
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 73 41 64 42 61 38 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 64 76 45 64 46 60 42 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 67 77 49 66 48 63 44 63 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 59 74 38 63 38 58 34 61 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 54 70 39 63 38 58 33 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 55 71 39 60 38 54 32 58 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 60 77 40 66 38 63 34 64 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655-670-675.
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