380
FXUS64 KMOB 200938
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA YESTERDAY. THE FOG,
DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT STILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR QUICKLY
FILTERING IN AND THE PREVIOUS WEATHER MAKER CONTINUING TO MOVE
AWAY TO OUR EAST THE LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST
TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ON EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND BRING A SECOND, MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A MUCH COLDER AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM. IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST, DEPARTING FRONT, TODAY'S
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL ZONES. BY
TONIGHT, IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND, STRONGER FRONT, LOOK FOR LOWS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR, AND LOW TO
MID 40S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER, IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TONIGHTS LOWS, BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER FOR SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
COASTAL HAZARDS...POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH SURF
WILL END THIS MORNING, BUT THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DS/12
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
BONE DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY DRY AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION (PWATS BELOW A QUARTER INCH) AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE
OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH SLIDES
EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS (LIKELY HITTING 60°F RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE). THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS INLAND
COMMUNITIES WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 40S AT THE BEACHES.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, THERE'S A 90-100%
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AT/BELOW THE 32°F MARK FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING (AND A 70%+ CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES FALL AT/BELOW 28°F IN WILCOX COUNTY). WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE TIMEFRAME WHERE WE CAN ISSUE PRODUCTS, BUT A FREEZE
WATCH IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR THE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOW ARE A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE AREA (ALBEIT STILL VERY DRY) AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY.
THAT SAID, LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE THE DECENT PROBABILITIES OF SLIPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING (DESPITE NOT BEING EXPLICITLY IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT). TEMPERATURES STEADILY REBOUND AS WE ROLL
INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACH NOTE: RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS LOW. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN
THE INCREASE TODAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA. A STRONG OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. GUSTS OFFSHORE
MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY. DS/12
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 41 63 42 61 37 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 74 46 63 46 61 42 63 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 78 49 65 48 63 44 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 73 39 62 38 58 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 69 38 63 38 59 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 69 38 60 38 56 32 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 77 39 65 38 60 33 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ALZ265-
266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ202-
204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655-670-675.
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