107
FXUS64 KMOB 150459
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1059 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO SEE MID LEVEL MVFR MIXING
IN ALONG THE COAST. AM EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO
LOW/MID LEVEL MVFR LEVELS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. HOW LOW WILL BE
GOVERNED BY WINDS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED. LOWER WINDS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO SETTLE LOCALLY CLOSER TO
IFR LEVELS. SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND ALLOW CIGS TO BECOME A GENERAL VFR. ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OPERATIONS.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 524 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024/
.NEW AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO LOW END MVFR AS TEMPERATURES
COOL OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. GULF WATERS OFF THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST HAVE COOLED ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADVECTION FOG OVER MISSISSIPPI TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY, WINDS AND HEATING WILL ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO VFR
LEVELS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL EASE TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS INLAND, BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST, BUT LIKELY STALL WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, LEAVING MUCH
OF THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. /13
LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT
STALLS BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO STUBBORN SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. WE ANTICIPATE THIS SYSTEM TO BRING
A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THURSDAY MORNING AS A DOME OF COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT,
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGHS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S,
THEN TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. /22
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. /13
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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