989
FXUS64 KMOB 160455
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1055 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
DRIER AIR MOVING INLAND OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS BREAKING UP AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE FORECAST AREA, BUT STREAMS OF MVFR
STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND NEAR AREA TAF SITES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE KMOB TAF, WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT
POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFR CIGS/VISBYS AS FLOW MOVES UP A SLIGHT RISE
TO THE AIRPORT, OVERRIDING THE DRIER AIR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HINT AT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI WITH SOME
HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS MORE CONFIDENT MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAY NEED IFR
VISBYS ADDED IN. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 545 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024/
.NEW UPDATE
UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HAVE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024/
NEW AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
GULF MOISTURE STREAMING INLAND IS BRINGING MID LEVEL MVFR/LOW END
VFR CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT, CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOW MVFR LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS TO THE
WEST WILL HELP TO KEEP CIGS HIGHER THAN EAST. ALSO, FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
VISBYS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER WEST, ADVECTION
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER MISSISSIPPI. AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY, AM EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO RISE TO GENERAL VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY DRIFTS
EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, RIDING WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH A MAINLY
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA BACK UP INTO THE
60S, AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY,
AND EVEN A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
POP). THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY LIFT A LITTLE AND THEN BECOME A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BE DRIFTING
INT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING (ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY). LOWS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER INLAND AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY, RISING IN MOST AREAS INTO THE
LOWER 70S (ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BE LIKE TODAY AND REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S). DS/12
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 600MB AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE GREAT PLAINS AND PROGRESSING OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, SO NOW WE ARE
ONLY EXPECTING ABOUT A 20-30 CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS A DOME OF COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 70S, AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
LOWEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S, AND HIGHS ONLY MANAGING TO GET INTO
THE 50S. /22
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 427 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW, STRONGEST WELL
OFFSHORE, FLOW WILL PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS
COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. DS/12
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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