000
FXUS64 KMOB 161149
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
549 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A MIX BAG OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS, VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT MAINLY ON THE WESTERN SHORES OF MOBILE
BAY. MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY
THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT LEADING TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BB/03
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 409 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024/
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE FILTERED INTO THE AREA, IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FURTHER COOLING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST TODAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS, ALONG WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, WITH FLOW THIS FAR SOUTH BECOMING MORE
ZONAL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL 50S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION WILL BE
IS IT FOG OR LOW STRATUS AND FOR NOW HAVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
BUT NO MENTION OF DENSE QUITE YET. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL WINDS, IT
MAY SUPPORT MORE STRATUS WEST OF I-65 AND MORE FOG EAST OF I-65;
HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS INVERSE TO THAT THINKING. IF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LOW STRATUS THEN SOME
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
/73
LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A CHANGE IN PATTERN IS ONE THE WAY AS DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY WEATHER COMES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TOUGH QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY; HOWEVER, OVERALL UPPER FORCING WILL BE QUICKLY
LIFTING OUT AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, STORMS
WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY HARD TO COME BY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND LIKELY CONFINED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN RAIN CANNOT HAPPEN ELSEWHERE JUST THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED WHERE OUR FORCING IS BEST ACROSS THE
NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, DRY AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SETUP A LOFT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. EXPECT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. BB/03
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, LESSENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 55 76 54 75 51 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 56 74 57 75 54 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 0
DESTIN 74 59 76 62 75 57 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 75 51 78 53 77 47 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 20 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 72 55 76 53 74 45 62 38 / 10 10 10 0 20 10 0 0
CAMDEN 72 52 74 52 75 45 61 37 / 0 10 10 0 20 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 77 51 80 54 78 50 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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