191
FXUS64 KMOB 171022
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
421 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
FOG SEASON IS UPON US AS SOME FOG HAS SETUP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, FOG SEEMS TO BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO I-65 AND AREAS WEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES; HOWEVER, IT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY MIXING OUT THE LAST THIRTY MINUTES OR SO. THIS MIXING
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED
FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION WHICH APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO CUT AWAY AT SOME
OF THE FOG. HOWEVER, AS WE CONTINUE TO COOL THIS MORNING DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A RESURGENCE OF THE FOG RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE
BEFORE QUICKLY CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL BE DRY AS WE WILL BE PANCAKED BETWEEN THE FIRST
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. IN THE MEANTIME,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE KEEPING US WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, THEY PROBABLY DON'T
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. GIVEN RIDGING IN PLACE
AND CLOUDS LIKELY HANGING OFF, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS HIGH AS TODAY WAS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AND
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY THE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DRAGGING
A RELATIVELY DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING LOOKS TO BE
REMOVED TO OUR NORTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT ARRIVAL SUPPORTS
JUST A SMALL BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CRASH AS A DRIER
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. BB/03
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW A LOFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL
USHER IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
NOTHING REALLY TO NOTE IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS BY THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST PUSH OF COULD AIR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES OVER
THE WEEKEND WHEN WE DIP TO NEAR FREEZING. A GRADUAL WARMUP DOES
LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS WE APPROACH THE HOLIDAY. BB/03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A LIGHT, MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. PATCHY MARINE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOBILE BAY AREA AND COULD
POTENTIALLY BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. A STRONG BUT MOSTLY
RAINFREE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHER
SEAS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WAVES COULD BE HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. BB/03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 56 76 51 65 40 62 34 / 0 0 20 10 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 76 60 75 55 66 44 63 37 / 0 0 20 20 10 0 0 0
DESTIN 75 63 75 57 69 47 64 40 / 0 10 30 20 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 78 55 77 50 65 37 61 32 / 0 0 30 20 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 76 53 75 45 62 36 60 29 / 0 0 30 20 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 76 52 76 46 61 36 58 31 / 0 0 40 20 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 80 57 79 52 69 37 64 33 / 0 0 30 20 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>056-
059-261>266.
FL...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>632.
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