348
FXUS64 KMOB 172045
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
AN UPPER TROF EVOLVES MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
THEN AMPLIFIES WHILE PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS TO THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED
STORMS. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S, THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S EAST OF I-65. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT,
AND AT THIS POINT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. PER COORDINATION
WITH OTHER OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR STONE,
GEORGE, PERRY AND GREENE COUNTIES MISSISSIPPI WHICH WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
UPPER TROUGH DRIVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO HAVE PASSED DEEP INTO THE GULF BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. DRY, COOL,
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS RANGE 61 TO 66 NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO 66 TO 71
SOUTHEAST OF I-65, TO THE COAST. FRIDAY'S HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES CAUSE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IN OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
COLDER NUMBERS THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM 36 TO 41. MID TO UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS CRATERING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
ARE FAVORED TO BOTTOM OUT TO THE FREEZING MARK, 27 TO 32 ALONG AND
NORTH OF A RICHTON MS TO EVERGREEN AND LUVERNE AL LINE. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE, 33 TO 37. /10
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE WEEKEND STARTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ADVANCING EASTWARD WHILE ITS AXIS STRENGTHENS WITH
EASTWARD PASSAGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY CHILLY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR, 35 TO 40 COAST. WITH
THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TO OPEN UP THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, A GRADUAL WARMUP LOOKS LIKELY AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF OVER THE LAND ZONES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAYS AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER THE FOG WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY OVER THE 20-60 NM PORTION
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 56 76 53 67 41 63 33 54 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 60 75 57 69 45 63 37 55 / 0 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 63 74 58 70 48 65 40 57 / 10 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 54 77 50 65 38 61 31 53 / 0 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 52 75 47 62 38 61 30 51 / 0 20 30 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 52 75 46 60 37 58 29 50 / 0 30 30 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 56 78 53 70 39 64 33 56 / 0 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MSZ075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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