031
FXUS64 KMOB 180542
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI, OTHERWISE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REMAINING AREAS AS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FEET
SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
AN UPPER TROF EVOLVES MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY THEN AMPLIFIES WHILE PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS TO THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME EMBEDDED STORMS. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 60 AT
THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S, THEN
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EAST OF I-65. FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, AND AT THIS POINT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. PER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR STONE, GEORGE, PERRY AND GREENE
COUNTIES MISSISSIPPI WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29
SHORT TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
UPPER TROUGH DRIVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO HAVE PASSED DEEP INTO THE GULF BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. DRY, COOL,
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS RANGE 61 TO 66 NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO 66 TO 71
SOUTHEAST OF I-65, TO THE COAST. FRIDAY'S HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES CAUSE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IN OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
COLDER NUMBERS THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM 36 TO 41. MID TO UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS CRATERING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
ARE FAVORED TO BOTTOM OUT TO THE FREEZING MARK, 27 TO 32 ALONG AND
NORTH OF A RICHTON MS TO EVERGREEN AND LUVERNE AL LINE. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE, 33 TO 37. /10
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE WEEKEND STARTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ADVANCING EASTWARD WHILE ITS AXIS STRENGTHENS WITH EASTWARD
PASSAGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY CHILLY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR, 35 TO 40 COAST. WITH THE HIGH
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TO OPEN UP THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A
GRADUAL WARMUP LOOKS LIKELY AS WE APPROACH THE HOLIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF OVER THE LAND ZONES THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. /10
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAYS
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
THERE IS INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER THE
FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR NOW. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY OVER THE 20-60
NM PORTION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS.
/29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 56 76 53 67 41 63 33 54 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 60 75 57 69 45 63 37 55 / 0 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 63 74 58 70 48 65 40 57 / 10 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 54 77 50 65 38 61 31 53 / 0 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 52 75 47 62 38 61 30 51 / 0 20 30 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 52 75 46 60 37 58 29 50 / 0 30 30 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 56 78 53 70 39 64 33 56 / 0 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
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