264
FXUS64 KMOB 182100
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WELL INLAND. FOR TONIGHT WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS WELL AS A SMALL PORTION OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROF WHICH ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING A DRY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE FORECAST REGION,
ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA OCCURS LATER DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EAST OF I-65. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY MAINLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH UNDER A WELL ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY AM, TAPS CANADIAN AIR WHICH IS
DRIVEN SOUTHWARD DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN US BY A SECONDARY,
REINFORCING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WILL TREND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS
FOR MOST AREAS APPEAR TO RANGE 50 TO 55 OR SOME 7 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NIGHTS
WILL BE MUCH COLDER AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP TO THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER THE COAST. AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT FROST DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED SO PREPARE TO
COVER ANY TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION. /10
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THE EXTENDED RANGE LOOKS COOL AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EASING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. BY CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY, THE WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A GRADUAL WARMUP WHILE ALSO
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RE-ENTER
THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAYS AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WAY TOO EARLY ON THIS
PACKAGE TO DETERMINE THE CONVECTIVE MODE WITH ANY CONFIDENCE,
WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT OR GENERAL THUNDER, BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BRIEFLY
STRENGTHENS, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE 20-60 NM
PORTION. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 52 66 40 64 33 54 33 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 68 44 64 36 54 36 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 57 70 47 65 38 55 39 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 48 65 37 62 30 52 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 44 62 36 61 29 51 28 55 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 45 59 37 58 28 49 27 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 52 70 38 65 32 55 30 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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