539
FXUS64 KMOB 200555
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. A STUBBORN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE BASE OF TROUGH
PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS, AND KEPT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH
COOLER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY (BUT STEADILY)
ERODING. ELSEWHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED TODAY, AND EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT SOME LOWER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. BARRIER ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE BEACH FRONT
LOCATIONS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. ON FRIDAY, EVEN WITH
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOLISH
SIDE, RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS. LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 40S FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND
IMMEDIATE BEACHFRONT. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AN EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE PROCESS. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW
PROGRESSIVE OR STRONG THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE. A SURFACE LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY,
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY PAST THIS POINT WITH HOW THE
SURFACE PATTERN PLAYS OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ARE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY ONLY TO REFORM BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, OR THE SURFACE LOW COULD LIFT UP TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE BEFORE DISSIPATING. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH OF IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
LOOKS TO SUPPORT SMALL POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATTERN. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE MID
30S AT THE COAST, THEN A WARMING TREND ENSUES WITH LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER
50S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AND MOSTLY
50-55, THEN TREND WARMER TO 65-70 BY WEDNESDAY. /29
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY, EXCEPT INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG FLOW OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF ZONES BEYOND 20 NMI OUT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE GULF WATERS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW HOLDING OFF ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A SCA DUE TO THE BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT AT
THIS TIME. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR HOWEVER. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NECESSITY OF A SCA. A LIGHTER
MORE EASTERLY FLOW THEN DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK. DS/12
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 40 64 32 53 32 58 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 44 64 36 54 36 57 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 46 65 38 55 39 58 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 37 62 29 52 28 55 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 37 60 29 51 28 55 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 36 57 29 49 27 53 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 38 65 31 55 29 58 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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