485
FXUS64 KMOB 291740
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOW CEILINGS
(IFR-LIFR) SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AS WELL
LATE TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS AT 5
KNOTS OR LESS BECOME CALM OR NEARLY SO BY EARLY EVENING, THEN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASES TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING. /29
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSITING THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS REGION THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET SETTING THE STAGE FOR VERY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND SLIDES EAST
THURSDAY, HELPING TO BRING SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60'S TO NEAR 70
TODAY, WITH THURSDAY BEING WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70'S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS QUICKLY WARM, GOING FROM LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50'S TONIGHT TO UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY BECOMES A MODERATE RISK BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND A HIGH RISK BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. THE REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND GOOD UPPER DIFLUENCE HELPING TO INDUCE
STEADY HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST SOME FORM OF EML BEING PRESENT
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION ENTERING THE AREA, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
LIFTED OUT WITH THAT SYNOPTIC LIFTING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP
CONVECTION. WHILE MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS MEAGER ON
INSTABILITY, I WON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE USUAL UPTICK IN
FORECAST INSTABILITY THAT WE GET THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WE APPROACH AN
EVENT, PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING OVER 24 TO 36 HOURS OF RETURN FLOW.
SHEAR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 70
TO 75KTS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS
ARE A RESULT OF THE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR 300 TO
500 M2/S2 SFC-1KM SRH TO DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC HSLC
(HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE) SETUP WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGLY FORCED
QLCS TO PUSH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. BEST OVERLAP OF FORCING,
SHEAR, AND POTENTIALLY INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST OVER OUR INTERIOR
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL
WITH THE CIPS HISTORICAL ANALOG GUIDANCE. AS MENTIONED, THE BIGGEST
CAVEAT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MOVING FORWARD. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 71 61 74 46 69 44 72 / 0 10 30 80 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 69 62 73 49 67 48 69 / 0 0 10 80 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 56 67 61 72 51 68 52 69 / 0 0 0 80 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 48 74 57 75 43 70 42 75 / 0 10 10 90 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 50 73 57 72 43 68 41 73 / 10 10 70 60 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 46 74 57 71 43 67 41 73 / 10 10 30 90 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 49 73 57 77 44 70 43 75 / 0 0 10 80 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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