995
FXUS64 KMOB 292042
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
242 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROF AND
PROGRESSES TO NEAR THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM TEXAS TO
ILLINOIS AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND A SMALL PORTION OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA. WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND SHEAR INCREASES, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED
THANKS TO A SLOW TO ERODE WARM LAYER NEAR 850-550 MB.
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST, AND PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
70-75 EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE
COAST. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
MODERATE RISK ON THURSDAY AND A HIGH RISK THURSDAY NIGHT. /29
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS MIXED IN AS WELL. THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEES A ROBUST WIND SHEAR PROFILE
WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION, BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
BEST SHEAR. THIS WOULD ACT TO PLAY A VITAL ROLE IN LIMITING THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN SO, WITH THE STRONG/VEERING
FLOW WITH HEIGHT, FORECASTERS CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE IT OUT EITHER.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FRIDAY OF A POTENTIAL STRONGER STORM HERE
OR THERE, PERHAPS ACHIEVING SEVERE STORM STRENGTH BRIEFLY
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO, CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOO BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALOFT EJECTING QUICKLY EAST LATER IN
THE DAY FRIDAY, THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND BRINGS AN END THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING THE FRONT'S PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SETS UP AS WE OPEN UP THE WEEKEND.
EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY, DAILY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70'S WILL BE 8 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LAST DAY OF JANUARY. LOWS THOUGH WILL RESPOND, BY TRENDING
COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 40'S WITH SIMILAR NUMBERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60'S/LOWER 70'S.
/10
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPENS UP WITH THE REGION ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK
OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE HOLDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FAVORING A RAIN-FREE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME INDICATIONS THOUGH FROM THE 29.12Z GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODELS REFLECT A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALIGNED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES
BY WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM OPENS UP AND ADVANCES EASTWARD OVER THE
GULF. THE NATIONAL BLENDS MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT WE MAY SEE POPS RETURN THAT DAY ON FUTURE
FORECASTS.
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING 69 TO 73 SUNDAY, LOOK TO RANGE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER/MID 70'S THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLEST
MONDAY MORNING AT MID 40'S INTERIOR TO LOWER 50'S COAST, ARE
FAVORED TO MODERATE WELL INTO THE 50'S WITH EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER.
/10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED TONIGHT, AND
PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
DIMINISHES AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 20-60 NM PORTION FROM 9 PM THURSDAY
NIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 71 61 74 46 69 44 72 / 0 10 30 80 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 69 62 73 49 67 48 69 / 0 0 10 80 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 56 67 61 72 51 68 52 69 / 0 0 0 80 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 48 74 57 75 43 70 42 75 / 0 10 10 90 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 50 73 57 72 43 68 41 73 / 10 10 70 60 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 46 74 57 71 43 67 41 73 / 10 10 30 90 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 49 73 57 77 44 70 43 75 / 0 0 10 80 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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