903
FXUS64 KMOB 301839
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION, NEAR TERM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS. WITH PERSISTENT PATTERN, CIGS TONIGHT RANGE MOSTLY
MVFR/IFR. VSBY BY AND AFTER 31.06Z COULD ALSO RANGE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORIES IN BR. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS, COULD SEE LATE NIGHT FG AND RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBY AND CIGS TO LIFR/VLIFR CATEGORIES. /10
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
30.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER STORM SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM BEGINNING TO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW A STOUT 120-140
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER TX WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EAST OF THIS FEATURE, A COLD FRONT
WAS DRAPED OVER EAST TX AND INTERSECTING A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
BEING PULLED NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF. CONSIDERING THE FAVORED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE INTENSE JET STREAK ALOFT TO AID IN UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT LIFTING NORTHEAST, WEST OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM EAST TX TO UP ACROSS THE MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED TO OUR EAST AND
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED AND AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 70'S.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHS CLOSING IN ON RECORD
TERRITORY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH ON THE FORECAST
WILL BE CONSIDERED WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AND AT THIS TIME APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
LOWER RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY NOTED IN THE SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES WILL BE NEAR AREA BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BECOME REQUIRED AND WILL PASS TO THE EVENING SHIFT
TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR ISSUANCE. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MAKE AN APPROACH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. WITH IT'S EASTWARD ADVANCE, POPS WILL GRADUALLY GO UP. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. DESPITE WIND
SHEAR BEING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, POOR
INSTABILITY PRESENTS A LIMITING FACTOR. WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY-
LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT CLOSER TO THE COAST, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WHICH MAY EVOLVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.
IT MUST BE SAID THAT VERY NEAR THE COAST, IF ANY WEAK SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT COULD SUPPORT A ROTATING
UPDRAFT/TORNADO. OVERALL THOUGH, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED, MARGINAL RISK AT BEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER/MID 70'S. WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40'S, WARMEST NEARER THE COAST. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 72 46 69 44 71 48 74 / 20 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 62 71 49 67 48 69 51 71 / 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 60 71 52 68 52 69 54 70 / 0 60 20 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 58 73 43 71 42 74 44 77 / 10 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 57 71 43 69 42 73 44 76 / 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 57 70 43 68 41 73 43 76 / 20 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 57 75 46 72 43 74 46 76 / 0 60 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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