986
FXUS64 KMOB 302150
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
30.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER STORM SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM BEGINNING TO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW A STOUT 120-140
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER TX WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EAST OF THIS FEATURE, A COLD FRONT
WAS DRAPED OVER EAST TX AND INTERSECTING A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
BEING PULLED NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF. CONSIDERING THE FAVORED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE INTENSE JET STREAK ALOFT TO AID IN UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT LIFTING NORTHEAST, WEST OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM EAST TX TO UP ACROSS THE MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED TO OUR EAST AND
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED AND AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 70'S.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHS CLOSING IN ON RECORD
TERRITORY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH ON THE FORECAST
WILL BE CONSIDERED WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AND AT THIS TIME APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
LOWER RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY NOTED IN THE SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES WILL BE NEAR AREA BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BECOME REQUIRED AND WILL PASS TO THE EVENING SHIFT
TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR ISSUANCE. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MAKE AN APPROACH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. WITH IT'S EASTWARD ADVANCE, POPS WILL GRADUALLY GO UP. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. DESPITE WIND
SHEAR BEING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, POOR
INSTABILITY PRESENTS A LIMITING FACTOR. WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY-
LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT CLOSER TO THE COAST, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WHICH MAY EVOLVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.
IT MUST BE SAID THAT VERY NEAR THE COAST, IF ANY WEAK SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT COULD SUPPORT A ROTATING
UPDRAFT/TORNADO. OVERALL THOUGH, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED, MARGINAL RISK AT BEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER/MID 70'S. WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40'S, WARMEST NEARER THE COAST. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. /10
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL AS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION
AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF. THIS GENERAL ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OVERHEAD LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE POTENT LONGWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
AND BECOMES SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY, PROVIDING THE LOCAL REGION WITH ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT, IT WILL LIKELY STALL TO
OUR NORTH AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGH IN PLACE, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH) APPROACHES THE AREA.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY. LOWS START OFF ON THE COOLER END,
WITH 40S ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. LOWS INCREASE
INTO THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LASTLY, WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT FAVORS A BUILD IN SEA
STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE 20-60 NM
ZONES THIS EVENING INTO MIDMORNING FRIDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE LOCAL AREA, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE
POSTED. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. FOG
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. A COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO OPEN UP
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 72 46 69 44 71 48 73 / 20 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 62 71 49 69 48 70 52 72 / 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 60 71 52 68 52 68 54 70 / 0 60 20 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 58 73 43 71 43 75 44 77 / 10 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 57 71 43 69 41 73 43 75 / 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 57 70 43 69 42 73 44 76 / 20 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 57 75 46 73 42 74 46 76 / 0 60 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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