303
FXUS64 KMOB 310428
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1028 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
EVENING UPDATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP A SHALLOW INVERSION
LAYER AND MUCH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT ANY ATTEMPTS AT FOG
FORMATION. THIS INSTEAD FAVORS A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
REGION. I CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE COLDEST
PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND, SEEING SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES. THE SEVERE THREAT ALSO REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OUTPACING BETTER FORCING IN ADDITION TO LIMITED INSTABILITY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. ANY CHANCES FOR A STRONGER WIND GUST
OR TWO WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA WHERE MEAGER ALIGNMENT OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS. MM/25
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
30.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM BEGINNING TO MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF/LOW A STOUT 120-140 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER TX WAS
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE, A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER EAST TX AND INTERSECTING A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE INTENSE JET
STREAK ALOFT TO AID IN UPPER LEVEL ASCENT LIFTING NORTHEAST, WEST
OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE, RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM EAST TX TO UP
ACROSS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
POSITIONED TO OUR EAST AND WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED AND AT TIMES
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 70'S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
HIGHS CLOSING IN ON RECORD TERRITORY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH ON THE FORECAST
WILL BE CONSIDERED WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AND AT THIS TIME APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
LOWER RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY NOTED IN THE SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES WILL BE NEAR AREA BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BECOME REQUIRED AND WILL PASS TO THE EVENING SHIFT
TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR ISSUANCE. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MAKE AN APPROACH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. WITH IT'S EASTWARD ADVANCE, POPS WILL GRADUALLY GO UP. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. DESPITE WIND
SHEAR BEING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, POOR
INSTABILITY PRESENTS A LIMITING FACTOR. WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY-
LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT CLOSER TO THE COAST, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WHICH MAY EVOLVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.
IT MUST BE SAID THAT VERY NEAR THE COAST, IF ANY WEAK SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT COULD SUPPORT A ROTATING
UPDRAFT/TORNADO. OVERALL THOUGH, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED, MARGINAL RISK AT BEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER/MID 70'S. WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40'S, WARMEST NEARER THE COAST. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 72 46 69 44 71 48 73 / 20 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 62 71 49 69 48 70 52 72 / 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 60 71 52 68 52 68 54 70 / 0 60 20 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 58 73 43 71 43 75 44 77 / 10 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 57 71 43 69 41 73 43 75 / 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 57 70 43 69 42 73 44 76 / 20 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 57 75 46 73 42 74 46 76 / 0 60 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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