024
FXUS64 KMOB 050137
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
737 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF LOW TO MID CLOUD SCATTERED ACROSS THE
AREA. IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT/CALM WINDS OCCUR ALONG WITH CLEARED
SKIES, EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE
EVENING. CLOSER TO THE COAST THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LIGHT ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT OFF OF THE GULF, THEREFORE A MIX OF RADIATION AND
NEARSHORE ADVECTIVE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY BE MORE PREVALENT AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM
NEAR OR GREATER THAN 60 DEGREES ACROSS AREA BAYS AND NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE ADVECTIVE SEA FOG
POTENTIAL.
REGARDLESS, MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL SUPPORT VLIFR
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH VERY LOW STRATUS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE
FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MID/LATE MORNING WITH VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS RETURNING ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. /JLH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 409 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025/
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND DEEP SOUTH, WHILE
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF. LIGHT
DAYTIME SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A THIN LAYER OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (DFA) HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM (14-22 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL), ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8-16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM 74 TO 78
DEGREES INLAND AND FROM 65 TO 73 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /22
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAINTAINS A GRIP ON THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR
SOUTH. A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WILL SAG
FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD STALL NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THIS
PATTERN. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE BAYS,
SOUNDS, AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER ALL THE BAYS, SOUNDS, AND NEARSHORE
WATERS EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 75 60 76 60 78 61 76 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 58 71 62 72 63 75 64 74 / 0 0 10 10 20 10 0 0
DESTIN 59 70 62 73 64 75 65 74 / 0 0 10 10 20 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 56 78 58 80 60 82 60 81 / 0 10 10 10 20 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 59 78 59 79 60 81 60 81 / 0 10 0 10 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN 56 77 58 78 60 80 60 80 / 0 10 10 30 20 20 10 10
CRESTVIEW 56 77 58 79 60 80 60 80 / 0 0 10 10 20 20 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.
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