471
FXUS64 KMOB 050541
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP TO TEMPER
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. VFR/MVFR VISBYS WILL MIX IN WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FOG
WILL MIX OUT BEGINNING SOON AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FIRST AFFECTING AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST
BY LATE EVENING.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1019 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025/
.NEW UPDATE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
COMPONENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 00Z LIX SOUNDING INDICATES A
FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 10-12KM. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A MIX OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS ALONG WITH PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO NARROW WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS INDICATING A COMPLETELY SATURATED SURFACE OBSERVATION.
IN AREAS WHERE CIRRUS REMAINS THIN AND THERE ARE NO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AROUND 1KM, CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE COMING IN WITH SCATTERED
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES NOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM.
DENSE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING 1/2SM TO 1/4SM
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF DRIVING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR PERIOD. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, INCLUDING AREA
BAYS AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.
/JLH
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAINTAINS A GRIP ON THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR
SOUTH. A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WILL SAG
FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD STALL NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THIS
PATTERN. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE BAYS,
SOUNDS, AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER ALL THE BAYS, SOUNDS, AND NEARSHORE
WATERS EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK. /22
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655.
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