445
FXUS64 KMOB 180525
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF, WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HELP TO PROVIDE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN,
HOWEVER, WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST. THE SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. BEST SIGNAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA, IN ADDITION TO ANY OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. GREATER
FOG COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS BETTER BOUNDARY-
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. FOG FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE
DENSE IN SPOTS. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. /96
A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY SPLITS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION EXITING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE THE REMAINDER ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS OFF
TO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION WHICH LOOKS TO STALL EITHER
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE RIDGE MODESTLY
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHER THAN
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WEAK FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA, A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO OR NEAR THE AREA, MOSTLY CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, THEN TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS A SERIES OF MODEST SHORTWAVES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH RISK FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. ANY FOG LIFTS QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A MORE FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POTENTIALLY REDUCING CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO IFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY OR LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RELAXING BELOW 5 KNOTS DURING THE NIGHT AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 82 64 81 67 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 10 10 50 20 40
PENSACOLA 66 79 66 79 68 79 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 30
DESTIN 66 78 68 79 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30
EVERGREEN 59 86 58 85 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 40
WAYNESBORO 62 86 61 84 64 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 10 10 70 30 50
CAMDEN 60 85 61 83 62 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 40 50
CRESTVIEW 57 85 58 84 60 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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