235
FXUS64 KMOB 180823
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
323 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
OVER THE WEEKEND...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY, WITH A FEW
INTERIOR SPOTS REACHING UPPER 80'S TODAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60'S FOR MOST SPOTS EACH NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH ANY FOG
QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
IS A BIT TRICKIER FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 AND 850MB EVIDENT ON CAM
GUIDANCE MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FULLY DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF IT CAN, AREAS OF DENSE FOG WOULD BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. IF NOT, WE WOULD END UP WITH A MOSTLY LOW STRATUS DECK
OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
CARRYING PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY BECOMES
MODERATE SATURDAY AND A HIGH RISK BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MM/25
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND IMPULSES
TRAVERSE THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PERHAPS NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER, DESPITE
THE INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, THE TOTAL EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.2 TO
NEAR ONE INCH OF RAIN NEXT WEEK NORTHWEST OF I-65, AND BELOW 0.2
INCHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. ANY FOG LIFTS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A MORE FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG POTENTIALLY REDUCING
CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY OR LOWER. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, RELAXING BELOW 5
KNOTS DURING THE NIGHT AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 65 82 64 81 67 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 50 20
PENSACOLA 80 66 79 66 79 68 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20
DESTIN 78 66 78 68 79 68 79 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 86 59 86 58 85 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30
WAYNESBORO 87 62 86 61 84 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 70 30
CAMDEN 86 60 85 61 83 62 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 40
CRESTVIEW 85 57 85 58 84 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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