799
FXUS64 KMOB 190528
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION ADVANCES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN SPLITS, WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING OFF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHILE THE REMAINDER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES (AND
STRETCHING UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST) MEANWHILE SLOWLY BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND PROMOTES A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED
TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, AND MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
SATURDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /29
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL HANG TOUGH
INTO MONDAY, THEN BEGIN TO TILT ANTICYCLONICALLY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN HAS TRANSFORMED INTO ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSES UPPER SYSTEM EXITS A MEAN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR
RAINFALL IN THE COMING WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING TUESDAY
SHIFTS THE SURFACE FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE THIS BOUNDARY MOVES IN THE
COMING WEEK, WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AND ANOTHER PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS RISING INTO
THE 1.5"-1.6" RANGE IN AREAS NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY WEST OF I-65), AND MLCAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000J/KG,
ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, MAYBE MORE EXTENSIVE IF THE SURFACE
FRONT IS RE-ENFORCED.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY FOR THE COMING
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO
LOW TO MID 80S WELL INLAND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
SHIFTING OF WHERE THE LOWER TEMPERATURES END UP. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SWELL TO AREA BEACHES. A WIDE
TIDAL RANGE THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE COMING WEEK,
WITH THE RIP CURRENT RISK EASING TO A MODERATE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGE FROM VFR OVER THE FAR INTERIOR TO MVFR TO
LIFR NEARER THE COAST PRESENTLY OWING TO LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG BEGINNING TO SETTLE IN. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS TO BECOME PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK, WITH MORE LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITIES, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A RETURN TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LIFTS. OVERALL, WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS NEARER THE COAST AND CALM FURTHER INLAND. EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE INTO THE DAY TODAY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
MAY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAINLY OVER THE 20-60 NM PORTION OF THE ALABAMA COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 64 82 66 82 66 82 65 83 / 0 0 10 30 30 60 10 30
PENSACOLA 66 78 67 79 68 80 67 80 / 0 0 0 20 10 40 10 20
DESTIN 67 78 68 79 69 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 10 30 0 20
EVERGREEN 59 85 58 85 62 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 30 30 60 10 30
WAYNESBORO 61 85 63 83 64 82 62 84 / 0 0 10 70 50 80 20 40
CAMDEN 60 83 60 83 63 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 40 40 70 20 40
CRESTVIEW 58 84 58 84 62 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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