778
FXUS64 KMOB 030530
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS A RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME LARGER HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THE FIRST PERIOD OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
THE WEST AS A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STILL BACK TO OUR
WEST AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY RE-
INVIGORATION OF THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE RATHER PALTRY ALL THINGS
CONSIDERING BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO ORGANIZE INTO
SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES. GIVEN RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE, DEEP EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS, AND WEAK STORM RELATIVE INFLOW OVER SLIGHTLY STABLE LOW
LEVELS, SOME LARGER HAIL INITIALLY WITH STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE MAINLY TRUE WITH ANY STORMS THAT TAKE ON
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED (1.75 INCHES)
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE
MORNING. THE WIND THREAT IS TOUGH BUT STEADY ORGANIZATION INTO A
MORE BOWING SEGMENT MAY AID IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALABAMA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.
THE SECOND WAVE OF STORMS IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RATHER GOOD
DIFFLUENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE TOO
WORKED OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS TO REALLY GET ANYTHING MORE
THAN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN TO OCCUR. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE RE-DESTABILIZE AND
STRONGER STORMS CAN RE-DEVELOP, A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP
WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS AND
WEAK STORM RELATIVE INFLOWS. IF THIS WERE THE CASE, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET SOME LARGER HAIL REPORTS DURING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW AND ADJACENT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT CLEARING US OUT.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT, A LOCALIZED FLOODING RAIN THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RE-ORIENTS AND LAYS OUT FROM
EAST TO EAST ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. 2 TO 4 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THIS AREA
IN A RATHER SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE MAIN CAVEAT IS THAT THE
GROUNDS ARE RATHER DRY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MOST OF IT BUT
EVEN THEN IF IT FALLS FAST ENOUGH IT WON'T BE ABLE TO ABSORB IT
ALL. LASTLY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. BB-8
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY, PROVIDING THE LOCAL AREA WITH A GENERAL ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, A
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A MORE DIFFLUENT, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE GULF. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVING A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. SHEAR MAY ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIALLY A RISK FOR STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS TO SEE WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND
FORCING LIES. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE AL COAST AND ALSO
MOVING EAST OVER SE MS WILL BRING DROPS IN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TO
LOW END MVFR/IFR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IMPACTS TO LOCAL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED, ALONG
WITH REDIRECTIONS OF TRAFFIC PATTERNS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AND AT TIMES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF LAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
EASTERLY THE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO A
OFFSHORE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OVER AREA WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST RETURNS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BB-8
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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