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FXUS64 KMOB 031751
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST (AND THE FORECAST AREA) AT THIS TIME
AS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM
ORGANIZING INTO THE CLOSED LOW, WITH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH PUSH FROM
YESTERDAY (NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY). A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z SATURDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE CURRENT WEATHER. AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
PASSES, A COMBINATION OF MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA (TAPERING DOWN AS ONE MOVES
NORTH), DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS OF 1.5"-
1.7"), GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE THROUGH 14Z-15Z, AND A LINEAR WIND
PROFILE ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINS
BRINGING LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES TO STONE TO MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNRISE ARE LIKELY, MAYBE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MLCAPES RISING BACK TO THE 1300-
1700J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A BIT
HIGHER OVER THE GULF COAST. ALSO, UPPER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES,
HELPING TO FIRE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY ADD TO ANY WATER ISSUES THAT DEVELOP EARLIER.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL DECREASE, BUT AM HESITANT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NONE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO
AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DROP OF A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
MODERATE/LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
/16
EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WE KICK OFF THE WEEK IN A BRIEF DRY PATTERN AS A LARGE, STACKED CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALLOWS FOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
PATTERN CHANGES AS WE ROLL INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES DRIFT
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THESE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OF NOTE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE GULF AT SOME
POINT ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE SPARKED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT'S TOUGH TO STATE ANY
SORT OF DEFINITIVE TIMING GIVEN THE MESSY PATTERN. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE WHERE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING LIES. GIVEN THE
POTENTIALLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (ASSUMING THE STORMS IN THE
NEAR TERM TIMEFRAME PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE
AS EXPECTED), THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING MAY INCREASE IN THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
BEACH FORECAST - THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS LOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RIP CURRENT MOS PROBABILITIES REBOUND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AT COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES. 07/MB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK, WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND
1500-2500 FEET, IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT ISSUANCE
TIME. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW INTO TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO A
OFFSHORE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OVER AREA WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST RETURNS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 80 55 82 59 82 68 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 20 50 70
PENSACOLA 62 80 59 79 63 81 70 79 / 50 0 0 0 0 10 30 50
DESTIN 64 80 62 80 65 82 70 81 / 60 0 0 0 0 10 20 40
EVERGREEN 54 78 50 81 53 85 62 81 / 30 0 0 0 0 10 40 70
WAYNESBORO 52 77 49 79 54 80 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 70 90
CAMDEN 52 75 50 77 53 80 61 78 / 20 0 0 0 0 10 50 80
CRESTVIEW 56 81 52 83 54 86 62 83 / 50 0 0 0 0 10 20 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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