634
FXUS64 KMOB 031833
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
133 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FOCUS FOR THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE ON TWO POTENTIAL IMPACT PERIODS,
THE FIRST BEING STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE
SECOND BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MADE
ITS WAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHERN LA. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, HELPING TO FILTER AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. HIRES
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS THE FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE FORCING EXPECTED,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP (WHICH WE'RE ALREADY SEEING TO OUR
WEST) AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES, WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET, AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
IN TERMS OF THE HAZARDS, IT REMAINS DEPENDENT ON IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE MUCH, IF ANY, INSTABILITY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, WE AREN'T QUITE TO OUR PEAK HEATING TIME,
WITH SEVERAL HOURS TO WARM UP. THIS, COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WILL STEEPEN LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINTAIN
SOME ORGANIZATION IF STORMS MATURE ENOUGH, THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
MEAGER AND HODOGRAPHS ARE LINEAR. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO TAP
INTO THE SHEAR ALOFT.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORKWEEK, OUR FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT LATER
IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUOUSLY EJECT FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH.
MEANWHILE, FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHEN, FILTERING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE SLOW MOVING, WHILE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. THOUGH WE'RE STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THERE'S A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKES IT EAST OF
THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEANS PAINT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WHICH IS WHAT
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOWCASE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP AND/OR ANY TRAINING STORMS
IS VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO CHECK BACK ON AS WE GET
CLOSER. /73
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK, WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND
1500-2500 FEET, IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT ISSUANCE
TIME. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW INTO TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO A
OFFSHORE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OVER AREA WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST RETURNS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 80 55 82 59 82 68 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 20 50 70
PENSACOLA 62 80 59 79 63 81 70 79 / 50 0 0 0 0 10 30 50
DESTIN 64 80 62 80 65 82 70 81 / 60 0 0 0 0 10 20 40
EVERGREEN 54 78 50 81 53 85 62 81 / 30 0 0 0 0 10 40 70
WAYNESBORO 52 77 49 79 54 80 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 70 90
CAMDEN 52 75 50 77 53 80 61 78 / 20 0 0 0 0 10 50 80
CRESTVIEW 56 81 52 83 54 86 62 83 / 50 0 0 0 0 10 20 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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