358
FXUS64 KMOB 041111
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
611 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AREAS NORTH OF THE AL/FL STATE LINE AND EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER
HAVE SAW DROPS IN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN 1/2SM THIS
MORN. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BEFORE STALLING AS AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WOBBLES EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE PROCESS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN MEXICO, WITH WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AN ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GULF MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE. MOISTURE LEVELS DROP INTO THE 0.5"-0.6"
TODAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED TO THE COAST AT
THIS TIME AND OFFSHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY MORNING,
MOISTURE LEVELS OF 1.1" ON AVERAGE (SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
MOISTURE LEVELS APPROACHING 1.25" OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI)
ARE WORKING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. AM MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE COMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO AROUND 80 SOUTH RISE
INTO THE AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO LOW 50S SOUTH OF I-10.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP TO A MODERATE
TODAY AND LOW TONIGHT.
/16
EXTENDED TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN UPPER
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK
TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. ADD IN DAILY ROUNDS OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING ENHANCED SUPPORT FOR
HEAVY RAINS, AND MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE 1.5"-1.7" RANGE (WITH
OCCASIONAL RISES TO NEAR 2" IN SOME GUIDANCE), PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
IN SOME AREAS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN HALF
OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF THESE HIGHER RAINFALL AREAS IS ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST TO
ALABAMA COAST AND JUST INLAND. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM
DISORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY NORTHEASTERN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IT'S LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME OF WATER
ISSUES WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE 1.2"-1.4" OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY.
TEMPERATURES SEE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED, FROM LOW TO
MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE FOR
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TUESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY RISE TO A HIGH RISK ON THURSDAY
AS THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS INCREASED SWELL TO AREA
BEACHES.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR IFR OR LOWER DUE TO FOG EAST OF
THE ALABAMA RIVER AND NORTH OF THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA STATE LINE WERE
NOTED AT 11Z. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING, WITH GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT LASTS INTO THE
COMING WEEK BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY. A LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
/16
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ054>060.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
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