042
FXUS64 KMOB 051121
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
621 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE SYNOPTICS OVER THE CONUS AND NEARBY, A PAIR OF
CLOSED UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT AT THIS TIME, ONE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND A SECOND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE EASTERN LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERS EAST,
TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. IT BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED
AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES, EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO A WEAK
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA, THE FIRST ROUND OF PASSING SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BRINGING CONCERN OF WATER ISSUES TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.6"-1.9"
RANGE, WITH A SATURATED PROFILE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS ALLOWING FOR
EFFICIENT RAINERS. ADDED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 1500J/KG AND
PASSING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG STORMS TO MIX IN, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER BEST WEST OF THE
TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FFA FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE AL/MS STATE LINE. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR EFFICIENT RAINERS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WATER ISSUES. THIS ROUND
LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LAST ROUND WILL COME OVER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE COAST AND
STALLS, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
IS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BEFORE IT
STALLS AND RAIN CHANCES FROM THERE. MOST ARE ADVERTISING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST. HAVE LEANED THIS DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK, BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84 TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW
TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY SEE A RISE TO MODERATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS INCREASED SWELL TO AREA
BEACHES. A DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF A
HIGH RISK.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT TODAY SHIFTS TO
ONSHORE TUESDAY. A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT WHETHER THE FRONT MOVES OVER OPEN GULF
WATERS IS INCONSISTENT AT THIS POINT.
/16
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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