841
FXUS64 KMOB 051756
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE SYNOPTICS OVER THE CONUS AND NEARBY, A PAIR
OF CLOSED UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT AT THIS TIME, ONE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND A SECOND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE
EASTERN LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM
MEANDERS EAST, TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. IT BECOMES
LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES, EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO A WEAK RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA,
THE FIRST ROUND OF PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
BRINGING CONCERN OF WATER ISSUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.6"-1.9" RANGE, WITH A
SATURATED PROFILE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT
RAINERS. ADDED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 1500J/KG AND PASSING
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG STORMS TO MIX IN, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER BEST WEST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FFA
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE AL/MS STATE LINE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN,
GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINERS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
WATER ISSUES. THIS ROUND LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST ROUND WILL COME OVER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES TO
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE COAST AND STALLS, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BEFORE IT STALLS AND RAIN CHANCES FROM
THERE. MOST ARE ADVERTISING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. HAVE LEANED THIS
DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK, BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY SEE A RISE TO MODERATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS INCREASED SWELL TO AREA
BEACHES. A DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCE
OF A HIGH RISK. /16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT TODAY SHIFTS TO
ONSHORE TUESDAY. A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT WHETHER THE FRONT MOVES OVER OPEN GULF
WATERS IS INCONSISTENT AT THIS POINT. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 81 66 81 65 80 64 83 / 10 30 50 80 70 90 60 60
PENSACOLA 64 80 70 79 70 79 68 80 / 10 20 20 60 60 90 70 70
DESTIN 66 82 70 81 70 80 69 81 / 10 10 10 40 40 80 70 70
EVERGREEN 53 82 60 81 62 82 62 83 / 0 10 40 70 60 90 70 70
WAYNESBORO 54 80 60 78 62 80 61 80 / 0 30 80 90 60 80 50 70
CAMDEN 53 81 59 76 62 78 62 80 / 0 10 60 80 60 80 60 70
CRESTVIEW 54 85 61 82 63 82 62 83 / 0 10 20 50 50 80 70 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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