018
FXUS64 KMOB 060544
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1244 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
OUT WITH THE OLD AND IN WITH THE NEW AS ONE UPPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION LIFTS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE A SECOND UPPER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES PRIMARILY EASTWARD. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL
BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN, AT TIMES HEAVY, TO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS IT TAKES IT SWEET TIME MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. IF FACT, AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING, THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGIONS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM,
INCREASING FROM 0.7-1.0 INCH THIS EVENING TO 1.8-2.2 INCHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF NUMEROUS
UPPER SHORTWAVES AND IMPULSES THAT WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM DAYBREAK TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EFFECT
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES, WHICH
INCLUDE GEORGE, GREENE, PERRY, STONE AND WAYNE. WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL ACROSS FLOOD WATCH AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS FIRST ROUND SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 6" ACROSS THE WATCH AREA,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE ANTICIPATE A GENERAL 1 TO 3" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA IF THE HEAVY RAIN HAPPENS TO ADVANCE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
MORE QUICKLY.
IN ADDITION...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD BE ON THE ORDER
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. SO, THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT PRIMARILY
FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S NORTH OF I-10, WITH 60S SOUTH TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES MOST AREAS. LOW TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH
OF I-10, WITH MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SOUTH TO THE COAST.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE TUESDAY NIGHT. /22
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. GRADUALLY SHEARS
OUT PROMOTING BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BENEATH A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE
REGION LOCKED INTO AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY, GRADUALLY TAPERING INTO THE WEEKEND TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. A CONTINUATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY SUPPORT A LOW-END FLASH FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY
NEARER THE COAST WHERE SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE HINTS AT HEAVIER
RAINFALL SETTING UP WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
WITH SOME KEEPING HEAVY RAINFALL OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND OTHERS KEEPING IT ONSHORE. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF VARIANCE IN JUST HOW MUCH RAINFALL AREAS RECEIVE. TRENDS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST IN THE COMING
DAYS. THURSDAY AND BEYOND COULD STILL FOSTER A CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE DAYS PRIOR, PARTICULARLY
IN ANY OF THE URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70'S TO LOWER 80'S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60'S. OVER THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES FALL A BIT MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50'S INLAND AND LOWER 60'S NEARER THE
COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY BECOMES A LOW
RISK BY FRIDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SHOULD
BECOME PREVALENT AS RAINFALL SPREADS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO SMALL CRAFT EXPECTED AS A LIGHT MOSTLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, AND THEN SHIFT
TO A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 67 79 65 78 63 82 61 80 / 60 90 60 90 60 70 40 50
PENSACOLA 69 78 69 78 68 80 65 79 / 30 70 50 90 70 70 50 60
DESTIN 69 81 71 81 68 80 67 80 / 20 50 40 80 70 70 60 60
EVERGREEN 61 80 62 80 61 81 58 80 / 50 80 50 80 60 70 50 60
WAYNESBORO 61 78 62 78 61 80 56 78 / 80 90 60 80 50 70 30 50
CAMDEN 59 77 62 77 61 78 57 76 / 70 90 50 80 60 70 40 60
CRESTVIEW 62 81 63 82 62 83 59 82 / 20 70 40 80 70 70 50 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
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