886
FXUS64 KMOB 060923
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
423 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE SYNOPTICS OVER THE CONUS AND NEARBY, A PAIR
OF CLOSED UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT AT THIS TIME, ONE HEADING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS
THE EASTERN LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE
WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERS EAST, TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. IT BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES,
INGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO A
WEAK RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. LOOKING CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA, THE FIRST ROUND OF
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BRINGING CONCERN OF WATER ISSUES
LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES RISE INTO
THE 1.6"-1.9" RANGE, WITH A SATURATED PROFILE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINERS. ADDED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND
1500J/KG AND PASSING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG STORMS
TO MIX IN, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER
BEST WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT THIS TIME. A FFA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE
BEGINNING TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION COMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RAINERS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WATER ISSUES. THIS ROUND
LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LAST ROUND OF ENERGY WILL PASS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
COAST AND STALLS, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES BEFORE IT STALLS AND RAIN CHANCES FROM THERE. MOST
ARE ADVERTISING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. HAVE LEANED THIS DIRECTION FOR
THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK, BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S THIS WEEKEND. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MID 60S
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID 50S TO AROUND 60
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY SEE A RISE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AS
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES. A
DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF A HIGH RISK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SHOULD
BECOME PREVALENT AS RAINFALL SPREADS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO ONSHORE TODAY. A LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT WHETHER THE FRONT MOVES
OVER OPEN GULF WATERS IS INCONSISTENT AT THIS POINT.
/16
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN
EXPANSION OR REISSUANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST AS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAIN PASS THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE GREATEST QPF PLACED OVER
AND WEST OF THE ABOVE STATE LINE, FLOODING IN THE PASCAGOULA BASIN
IS EXPECTED, WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ON THE TOMBIGBEE/MOBILE
RIVER. AT THIS POINT, THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST
OF OUR FLASHIER RIVERS, LOCATED SOUTH OF I-65.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 65 79 65 79 64 79 61 / 70 70 90 60 90 70 70 40
PENSACOLA 78 69 79 69 78 68 76 65 / 50 50 80 50 90 80 80 60
DESTIN 80 69 81 70 80 69 79 67 / 40 30 70 40 80 80 80 60
EVERGREEN 79 61 80 62 80 61 80 58 / 40 60 90 50 90 70 80 50
WAYNESBORO 76 61 79 62 79 61 79 57 / 60 80 90 50 80 50 70 40
CAMDEN 78 60 78 63 78 62 79 58 / 30 80 90 50 80 60 70 50
CRESTVIEW 81 62 81 64 81 63 80 60 / 50 40 70 40 90 80 80 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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