147
FXUS64 KMOB 071123
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (LEFT OVER FROM A DEFUNCT
OMEGA BLOCK) ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS ABSORBED INTO AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM THE
INTERIOR EASTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT PROVES TO BE
TEMPORARY AND SPLITS ON FRIDAY TO FORM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES (WHICH LATER EJECTS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH). A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN, A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE INVERTED SURFACE TROF LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS MEANWHILE DRIFTS TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS
INTO OR NEARLY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE THE WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF
LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF.
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY WITH A ROUND OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH POPS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
SIMILAR REASONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL. THE BROAD UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WHILE CREEPING
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND IN THE
PROCESS THE WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKEWISE BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED AND EVOLVES INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST. THE UPPER LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN GOING INTO
MONDAY THEN BREAK DOWN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY, WITH THE SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE
DISSIPATING. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, AND MOSTLY LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES
FINALLY TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS
MOVING OVER MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME. GENERAL MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
WERE NOTED WITH LOCAL DROPS TO LOW END MVFR /IFR AT 11Z. THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER FLOW TO DEVELOP DEPENDING ON IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AFFECTING THE AREA BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY, THEN A PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. /29
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ052-261>266.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
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