963
FXUS64 KMOB 071746
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (LEFT OVER FROM A DEFUNCT
OMEGA BLOCK) ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS ABSORBED INTO AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM THE
INTERIOR EASTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT PROVES TO BE
TEMPORARY AND SPLITS ON FRIDAY TO FORM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES (WHICH LATER EJECTS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH). A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN, A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE INVERTED SURFACE TROF LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS MEANWHILE DRIFTS TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS
INTO OR NEARLY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE THE WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF
LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF.
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY WITH A ROUND OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH POPS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
SIMILAR REASONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL. THE BROAD UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WHILE CREEPING TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND IN THE
PROCESS THE WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKEWISE BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED AND EVOLVES INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST. THE UPPER LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN GOING INTO
MONDAY THEN BREAK DOWN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY, WITH THE SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE
DISSIPATING. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, AND MOSTLY LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES
FINALLY TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS FROM A PASSING
SHOWER. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONGER FLOW TO DEVELOP DEPENDING ON IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY, THEN A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 80 65 78 62 79 62 79 / 60 90 60 80 50 60 40 60
PENSACOLA 69 78 68 76 66 79 66 79 / 50 90 70 80 60 60 50 60
DESTIN 70 80 70 79 67 80 68 80 / 40 80 70 80 60 60 50 60
EVERGREEN 63 80 63 79 60 82 59 80 / 50 90 50 80 50 70 50 70
WAYNESBORO 63 82 62 80 59 77 59 77 / 50 80 40 80 40 60 30 60
CAMDEN 63 80 63 79 60 78 59 77 / 40 80 50 80 50 70 50 70
CRESTVIEW 64 81 63 80 61 83 60 82 / 40 90 60 90 60 60 50 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ052-261>266.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page