466
FXUS64 KMOB 072333
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A HIGHLY POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY REMAINING SIGNIFICANT UPPER
IMPULSE WILL PASS OVER OUR COASTAL AREA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY LITTLE FORCING REMAINING. AS A RESULT, THE QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF) FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER DOES
NOT JUSTIFY HOLDING ONTO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF. WE ARE
HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WE ANTICIPATE A
GENERAL 1 TO 2" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DECREASING STABILITY ON THURSDAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG, ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS, SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
CURRENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INTERIOR AREAS, AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. /22
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF AND MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
IN A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OFF
TO THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
INTO MONDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY WITH LOWER RAIN COVERAGE.
/13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST BY 01Z, WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT, THEN FOR THURSDAY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVER INTERIOR AREAS, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
BECOME VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A MORE ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 82 64 79 62 80 62 80 / 20 60 40 80 50 60 30 50
PENSACOLA 69 81 69 77 66 78 67 78 / 30 70 50 80 70 60 50 60
DESTIN 71 81 70 79 67 80 68 79 / 30 60 60 80 70 60 50 60
EVERGREEN 62 85 62 82 61 80 60 80 / 30 40 30 70 60 70 40 70
WAYNESBORO 61 84 62 80 60 79 58 78 / 10 30 20 70 40 60 30 60
CAMDEN 62 83 62 80 60 77 60 76 / 30 30 30 60 50 70 40 70
CRESTVIEW 63 85 64 81 61 80 61 81 / 30 50 50 80 70 70 50 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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