621
FXUS64 KMOB 081545 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE AREA
BEACHES THIS MORNING FROM SURF RESCUE PERSONNEL, AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENT PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
BRING GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. A
MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, POTENTIALLY DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA, WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER LAND AREAS (PWATS AROUND
1.0-1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING). WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR TODAY. IN FACT, I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 40-60% POPS IS A
BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID,
BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWARD-PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT
MODELED SOUNDINGS, THE DRIER AIR ALOFT (GIVING WAY TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM) AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE WAY
TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING
2000 J/KG). ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, DEEP LAYER,
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 35-40KTS COULD RESULT IN SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION/SPLITTING CELLS. THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH
THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF SEEING AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
BE OVER COASTAL COUNTIES, WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
RESIDES. STORM COVERAGE QUICKLY DECREASES BY THE EVENING HOURS
THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR FRIDAY, A MUCH MORE
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN, WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
STORMS WILL LIKELY SPARK ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING
OFFSHORE. OUTFLOW FROM THESE NEW STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND. INSTABILITY DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY DUE TO MUCH WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER, IF WE ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE AMPLE SURFACE
HEATING (E.G. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER), THEN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /96
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND WILL START TO CUT OFF FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH. THE
RESULTANT UPPER LOW STARTS OFF RATHER ELONGATED AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ALONG THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD (SHOULD
IS THE KEY WORD HERE) HAVE DRIER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVES OVERHEAD. IN THE MEANTIME,
EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN, WETTER SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER, BUT WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BY MID-WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST - THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH
BY SUNDAY. RIP CURRENT MOS PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH RISK THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA,
BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR OF IFR. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A MORE ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME ON
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 79 62 78 61 79 61 79 / 40 80 50 60 30 50 40 50
PENSACOLA 68 78 65 77 66 77 67 79 / 40 80 70 60 40 60 50 50
DESTIN 70 78 67 79 68 79 68 80 / 40 80 70 70 50 60 60 50
EVERGREEN 64 81 62 77 59 79 61 80 / 30 70 60 70 40 70 60 60
WAYNESBORO 63 80 61 76 58 76 58 78 / 20 60 40 60 30 60 40 60
CAMDEN 63 81 62 74 59 74 61 78 / 20 50 50 70 40 70 60 70
CRESTVIEW 65 80 63 78 61 81 62 82 / 30 80 70 70 40 70 60 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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