626
FXUS64 KMOB 081801
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
101 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, POTENTIALLY DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA, WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER LAND AREAS (PWATS AROUND
1.0-1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING). WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR TODAY. IN FACT, I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 40-60% POPS IS A
BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID,
BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWARD-PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT
MODELED SOUNDINGS, THE DRIER AIR ALOFT (GIVING WAY TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM) AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE WAY
TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING
2000 J/KG). ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, DEEP LAYER,
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 35-40KTS COULD RESULT IN SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION/SPLITTING CELLS. THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH
THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF SEEING AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
BE OVER COASTAL COUNTIES, WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
RESIDES. STORM COVERAGE QUICKLY DECREASES BY THE EVENING HOURS
THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR FRIDAY, A MUCH MORE
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN, WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
STORMS WILL LIKELY SPARK ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING
OFFSHORE. OUTFLOW FROM THESE NEW STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND. INSTABILITY DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY DUE TO MUCH WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER, IF WE ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE AMPLE SURFACE
HEATING (E.G. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER), THEN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /96
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND WILL START TO CUT OFF FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH. THE
RESULTANT UPPER LOW STARTS OFF RATHER ELONGATED AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ALONG THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD (SHOULD
IS THE KEY WORD HERE) HAVE DRIER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVES OVERHEAD. IN THE MEANTIME,
EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN, WETTER SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER, BUT WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BY MID-WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST - THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH
BY SUNDAY. RIP CURRENT MOS PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH RISK THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES. 07/MB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED DUE TO PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A MORE ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME ON
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 81 62 78 61 79 61 79 / 40 70 60 60 30 50 40 50
PENSACOLA 69 78 67 77 66 77 67 79 / 30 80 70 60 40 60 50 50
DESTIN 70 81 68 79 68 79 68 80 / 20 80 70 70 50 60 60 50
EVERGREEN 63 83 60 77 59 79 61 80 / 10 60 50 70 40 70 60 60
WAYNESBORO 62 81 60 76 58 76 58 78 / 10 60 40 60 30 60 40 60
CAMDEN 62 81 61 74 59 74 61 78 / 10 40 40 70 40 70 60 70
CRESTVIEW 64 83 62 78 61 81 62 82 / 20 70 70 70 40 70 60 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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