847
FXUS64 KMOB 091244
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
744 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
AN E-W ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH, CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS TEXAS, IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
AN UPPER LOW THAT MEANDERS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH THE LOW REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA, WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LOOKING TO THE WEST, AN MCS HAS
ROLLED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND IS CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AS THE MCS PROGRESSES EASTWARD, AND ITS
OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER
LOW ALOFT, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG
OUR LOCAL COASTLINE SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING, DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF FORCING, WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER LIMITED TODAY. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
(USING UP OFFSHORE INSTABILITY AND PRODUCING NORTHWARD-PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW), AS WELL AS BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
(I.E. BEING WITHIN THE 'COOL' SECTOR). IF, HOWEVER, WE CAN GET SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY, THEN MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE MORE PROMINENT RAIN
SHIELD. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
APPEARS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, HELPING TO IMPROVE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CAN MAKE IT, THE LOW MAY HELP TO BRING IN A
WEAK WARM SECTOR OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, AND A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SPIN-UP ALONG THE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
TO THE MID 80S NORTHEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MARINE
WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW, HAVE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH RISK FOR THE WEEKEND. /96
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO
AN OPEN TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY THEN MOVES OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY MORNING OCCLUDES WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE HEADING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER SYSTEM AND OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW LOOK TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL TYPICALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, THEN A
WARMING TREND ENSUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S BY THURSDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TYPICALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST, THEN LIKEWISE
TREND WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS RAINFALL SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OR, AT TIMES, IFR IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS, GENERALLY
BECOMING IFR. WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS BECOME PROMINENT TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER OUR
GULF WATERS AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY OVER MARINE AREAS EAST OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW. A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 63 77 62 79 61 78 61 / 90 80 60 30 50 50 60 30
PENSACOLA 79 66 78 67 78 67 78 66 / 90 80 80 40 60 60 50 30
DESTIN 78 68 78 70 79 69 80 68 / 80 90 90 50 60 60 50 30
EVERGREEN 81 63 77 63 81 61 81 59 / 80 80 90 50 70 60 70 30
WAYNESBORO 79 61 72 59 78 58 77 58 / 80 70 70 30 60 50 70 20
CAMDEN 81 62 73 62 78 61 78 59 / 60 70 80 60 70 70 80 30
CRESTVIEW 82 64 78 64 80 62 82 60 / 80 80 80 50 70 60 60 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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