039
FXUS64 KMOB 240816
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
316 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT): THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AL AND GA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID SOUTH ARE RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST, IT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THAT
REGION WITH THE STORMS BEGINNING TO MOVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WELL DEFINED THETA-E GRADIENT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED STORMS INTO
INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO PERSIST AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
STORMS PERSISTING INTO OUR INLAND AREAS. IF THEY CAN HOLD
TOGETHER, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS STORMS QUICKLY FADING BY THE TIME THEY WOULD
APPROACH THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE IS WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST TODAY, AS WELL AS HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT INSTABILITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE PRONOUNCED TOMORROW AND THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS STAYING NORTH OF OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN THE FAR INLAND AREAS.
IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES IN SOME
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100. 34/JFB
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): AN UPPER TROF LOCATED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO
BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MEANWHILE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
TEXAS ON MONDAY LIFTS TO NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CONFLUENCE ON TUESDAY, AND IN THE PROCESS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ORIENTED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVES INTO
THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES. THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES THEN
LIFTING TO NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE IS MEANWHILE
ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN, BUT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
TOWARDS NORTH CAROLINA, THIS PATTERN BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS TRANSPIRES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.4- 1.6 INCHES TRENDING TO 1.6-2.0 INCHES, WITH SIMILAR VALUES
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR MONDAY, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
WELL INLAND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (BEFORE IT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH). THE IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SUPPORTS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY, THEN LIKELY POPS
PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE
AREA.
THE UPPER TROF IS ANTICIPATED TO AMPLIFY AND TAKE ON A MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AS
WELL AS HOW PRONOUNCED THE UPPER TROF BECOMES. THERE LIKEWISE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN, BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANTICIPATED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT
IN WET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY TEMPERED BY UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MOSTLY LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY, THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
PATCHY FOG WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE EVENING, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE SEABREEZE WILL ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS AREA BAYS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING MODERATE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH MOBILE BAY. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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