554
FXUS64 KMOB 242102
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
24.12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
OVER THE BAHAMAS, RESULTING IN A WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH,
STRADDLING THE NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY, IS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RANGES
2000-4000 J/KG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING TO POP-UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEEN
SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE CONTAINED
SOME CONCENTRATED, FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND ENOUGH STRUCTURE
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW SPS'S. OVERALL, WITH HIGH CAPE-LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, STORMS HAVE BEEN UPRIGHT WITH CORES COLLAPSING QUICKLY
AND RESULTING IN SHORT LIFE-SPANS. AT ANY RATE, IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING, STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A GUSTY WIND AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.
ATOP THE FRONT, A HIGH-LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS.
UPSTREAM, FORECASTERS SEE AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW ALOFT DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN AR. WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER WAYNE CO. MS TO CHOCTAW
AND NORTHERN WILCOX CO'S IN AL. ELSEWHERE, A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER EXTENDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN MOBILE CO. TO A
FLORALA AL LINE. IF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS UPSTREAM CAN HOLD
TOGETHER, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONSIDERING THAT THE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS APPROACHING THE MS DELTA, IMPACTS IF ANY FROM THE
LINE MAY NOT MAKE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS STORMS QUICKLY FADING BY THE TIME THEY WOULD
APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THE FLOW, WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE A RETURN TO EARLY AM SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND COAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST WPC
QPF. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER POTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE PRONOUNCED TOMORROW AND THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS STAYING NORTH OF OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCE FOR SUNDAY, HIGHEST IT APPEARS TO BE OVER INLAND AREAS. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT, A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS UP ALONG THE US HWY
84 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
FORMATION.
IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90'S INLAND.
HEAT INDICES IN SOME AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100. /10 /34
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS WE ROLL INTO THE HOLIDAY AND
ONWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK. WE AREN'T LOOKING AT A WASHOUT, BUT THERE
WILL DEFINITELY BE ACTIVE PERIODS (IN TERMS OF STORMS) THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
WE TRANSITION TO A ZONAL-ISH FLOW ALOFT (MIX OF ZONAL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW) EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH.
A PARADE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE WEAK RIDGING AND A TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING OUT THESE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAKENING FRONT LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION). EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN
WITH THE STORMS NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, WHERE 3+ INCHES OF RAIN
WILL FALL. MINOR/NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
BEACH FORECAST - RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE HOLIDAY,
BUT INCREASES TO MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 07/MB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING
INSTANCES OF BRIEF LOWERING VSBY WITH PASSAGE OF RA/+RA AND GUSTY
WINDS. CIGS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION PRIMARILY MVFR CATEGORIES.
WATCHING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SINKING EAST
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE THIS ENTER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH
SOUTHEAST EXTENT INTO FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE SEABREEZE WILL ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS AREA BAYS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING MODERATE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH MOBILE BAY. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 90 73 90 73 89 71 87 / 30 20 10 20 10 50 30 60
PENSACOLA 76 88 76 87 77 87 75 87 / 20 20 0 10 10 40 30 50
DESTIN 76 88 77 88 77 88 77 87 / 20 20 0 10 10 30 20 40
EVERGREEN 68 93 70 93 70 91 69 89 / 30 30 10 40 30 60 40 70
WAYNESBORO 68 93 70 92 70 90 68 87 / 40 20 20 50 30 70 40 70
CAMDEN 68 92 69 91 70 89 68 87 / 30 40 30 50 40 70 50 70
CRESTVIEW 69 93 70 93 70 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 20 10 40 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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